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22
Opinion&Analysis
Daytonatdeath’sdoor,ChristopherBennett
apackageofconstitutionalchangeswereputtotheparliamentaryassembly,but
wererejectedinApril2006.Despitetheabsenceofconstitutionalreform,thein-
ternationalcommunityeffectivelygaveupitsexecutivemandate,therebycreating
whattheDemocratizationPolicyCouncilthinktankhasdescribedasaurules-free
environment”inwhichwartimeagendashaveresurfaced.
TiswasclearlyondisplayinSeptember2016when,oneweekbeforeelec-
tions,RepublikaSrpskaPresidentMiloradDodikorganisedareferendum,which
hadbeenruledunconstitutionalbytheconstitutionalcourt,andagaininJanuary
thisyearwhenheledtheRepublikaSrpskaDaycelebrations.ButwhileDodikhas
donemorethananyotherleadertochallengetheDaytonsettlementandisplan-
ninganindependencereferendumfor2018,hisbehaviourisnotunique.Every
ethno-nationaleliteispursuingmutuallyexclusivepolicies.TeBosnianCroat
leadershiphasre-openedtheissueofathirdentity.AndtheBożnjakauthorities
areoverseeingtheIslamisationofpartsofthecountryundertheircontrolwith
ever-greaterinfluenceoftheGulfStatesandTurkey.
Meanwhile,thecountryisbothheadingtowardsaliquiditycrisisandthepros-
pectofeitherelectionstakingplaceunderasystemthathasbeendeemeduncon-
stitutional,orofnoelectionswhatsoever.
Since2009BosniaandHerzegovinahasbeendependentonIMFloans.Telat-
estagreement,athree-year553.3millioneuroextendedarrangement,wassigned
inSeptember2016tosupportthecountry’seconomicreformagendathathadbeen
drawnupinconjunctionwiththeEU.Moreover,BiHreceivedthefirsttrancheof
78.8millioneurostraightaway.However,therehavebeennomoredisbursements
andtheremaynotbesincetheyare
dependentonmeetingreformtargets.
TeBożnjakauthoritiesare
IntheeventthattheIMFendsthe
overseeingtheIslamisationof
programme,thecountrywillstrug-
partsofthecountryundertheir
gletocontinuefinancingthebloated
publicsector,which,inturn,poses
control,withever-greaterinfluence
athreattostabilityintherun-upto
oftheGulfStatesandTurkey.
nextyear’sgeneralelections.
Whetherornotitwillbepossible
toorganiseelectionsisunclearinthe
wakeofaDecember2016constitution-
alcourtruling,whichdeterminedthatelementsoftheelectionlaw,relatingtothe
electionofmembersoftheFederation’sHouseofPeoples,wereunconstitutional.As
aresult,theentity’sconstitutionandelectionlawhavetobeharmonisedbyJunethis
year.Iftheyarenot,theconstitutionalcourtwilllikelydeletetheoffendingarticles
fromtheelectionlaw,whichmaymakeitimpossibletoholdeffectiveelections.
