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Rozdział1
WPŁYWKRYZYSUEKONOMICZNEGONAROZWÓJEKONOMICZNY
ofrecoveryweredemonstratedby«fastgrowingeconomies»,particularlyof
ChinaandRussia.Inthemid2010ChinaleavedbehindJapanbyGDPpercap-
itaandreachedthe2
ndplaceintheworldaftertheUnitedStates1.Goodexam-
pleswerepresentedbyotherBRICcountriesaswellasTurkeyandSouthAfrica.
EuropeandevelopedcountriesandtheUnitedStatesshowedmodestratesofre-
covery–thebestpositionamongOECDcountriesiskeptbyGermany,with2%
GDPgrowthforecastedbytheendof2010.Russiaisshowingalmostdoublethe
rate,varyingfrom5%accordingtotheWorldBankforecastto4%accordingto
theRussianMinistryofeconomicdevelopment.
Table1
TheselectedmacroeconomicindicatorsofRussiaincomparationwiththeworld,
forecastedbytheWorldBankandIMFexperts[1][2]
AveragepriceofcrudeoilBrent,Dubai,
WTIanditsforecast(simpleaverage,
US$perbarrel)
Growthoftheworldeconomy,%
GDPgrowthofRussia,%
GDPofRussia,billionrubles
GDPofRussia,billionUSdollars
2007
33258
1305
71.1
8.1
2008
41445
1671
97.0
5.6
2009
39064
1240
61.8
-7.9
2010
44360
1488
76.0
2.7
4.3
2011
49190
76.58
1690
3.2
4.1
TheUSeconomyextremelyslowlyleavesrecoversfromrecessiondespite
ofthedifferentformsofmarketsupportfromthegovernmentandtheCongress:
significantinjectionstothefinancialmarket,grantingof35billiondollarsto
automobilegiants,practical«zeroing»byFederalreservesystemoftheinterest
rate,etc.Crisisconsequencesareinthefactthattheeconomycannotfunctionin
apreviousmodeanymore:takethecredit–investinbusiness–receivethe
income–payoffthecredit.
1
EconomistsarediscussingwhenthegrowingeconomyofChinawillovertaketheUnitedStates.
Chinaisalreadythefirstintheworldeconomybynumberofindicators:CO²emissions(2007),
goldextraction(2008),automobilemanufacture(2009),totalvolumeofexport(2009)andelec-
tricityconsumption(2010).ThechiefeconomistofGoldmanSachsJimO’Nilbelievesthatif
Chinapreservesthecurrenttrendsofdevelopmentit’llbecometheworld’slargesteconomy,
havingsurpassedtheU.S.evenin2027.
10
