Treść książki
Przejdź do opcji czytnikaPrzejdź do nawigacjiPrzejdź do informacjiPrzejdź do stopki
440
BarbaraLiberda
correlatedwithGDPgrowthandfollowsvariationsofGDPgrowthwithoneyear
delay,exceptfor2004(Liberda,2013).
Figure1
Grosssavings,grosscapitalformationandGDPgrowthrateinPoland,1996–2i12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
19961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012
Grosscapitalformation(%GDP)
Grosssavings(%GDP)
GrowthrateofGDP
Source:CalculationsbasedonSNA/ESA95forPoland,1995–2012,CSO,Warsaw,Poland.
Intheperiod1996–2012grosscapitalformationinPolandexceededgrossdo-
mesticsavingsby2–6%ofGDP
.Thecapitalformationreachedmaximumlevels
of24–25%ofGDPduringfasteconomicgrowthin1997–2000andadecadelater
atthepeakofthefinancialboominPolandin2007–2008.Duringmostofthe
2000sdomesticinvestmentswerekeptat19–22%ofGDP
,correlatedwithlower
savingratesandlowerGDPgrowthrates(Fig.1).Accordingtogrowthmodelling
andsimulations,currentlevelsofsavingsandinvestmentsareinsufficienttospeed
percapitaeconomicgrowthinPolandandsustainitinfutureatthelevelof3.5%
annually(WorldBank,2014).
Foralmosttwodecadesbetween1996and2012foreignsavings(netcurrent
accountbalancewithoppositesign)financedfrom1/20to1/4oftotalgrossin-
vestmentinPoland(Fig.2).
Thedeficitofresourcestofinanceinvestmentsiscoveredbynetlendingor
bycapitaltransfersfromabroad.From1996till2003netlendingtothePolish
economywasequaltothecurrentaccountdeficit,asnetcapitaltransfersfrom
abroadwerenegligibleorzerointheseyears.From2004onwardsthenetcapital
transfersfromabroad,mainlyfromtheEuropeanUnion,madetheindebtedness
ofthePolisheconomyincreaseless(by1–2%ofGDP)thanthenegativecurrent
accountwouldrequireiftherewerenocapitaltransfersfromabroad(Fig.3).
Till2003themaincauseofthenegativecurrentaccountofthePolishecon-
omywasthenegativevalueofnetexport.Theeconomywasimportingmore
thanexportingtofinanceincreasingdomesticinvestments.From2001onward
exportshavestartedincreasingfasterthanimport,andthenetexportbecameless
