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IreneuszGrządzielski,KrzysztofSroka
systemoperation’sbasictechnicalparameters(frequency,voltage),automatic
disconnectionofpowerplantsfromthegridandlossofvoltagethroughoutthearea
affectedbythedisturbance.
2.ARETHESYSTEMBREAK-DOWNSINEVITABLE?
Beforetryingtoanswerthequestion,theopinionsoftwoAmericanspecialists
areworthytobecited[1]:
ProfessorJohnDoylefromCaliforniaInstituteofTechnologyinPasadena
specializedindynamicsystemsandcontrol,electricpowerengineeringand
bioengineeringtold:
assuchtypesofemergencyshutdownscorrespondto
statistics,theywillcontinuetooccur.
TheopinionissharedbyprofessorVijayfromIowaStateUniversityinAmes,
expertintheelectricpowersystem’scontrolanddynamics:successivegreat
breakdownswilloccur,thereisnodoubt.
Thesuspicionthattheunpleasantsurprisesintheformofthesystem
breakdownsareinfactintrinsictotheSE’sinternalstructurehasariseninearly
1980s,alongwiththechaostheorydevelopment.In1982,themathematicians
formBoston,NancyKopellandRobertWashburn,appliedthistheorytotheSE.
However,theassociationbetweenchaosandblackoutsbecamecloserinmid-
1990swhentheresearchersreachedtherealbreakdownsdataacquiredfrom1984
byNERC(NorthAmericanElectricReliabilityCouncil).Theconclusionsdriven
fromthedataanalysishavebeenstarlingforProf.J.DoyleandtheCarreras-
Newman-Dobsonexpertgroup.Referringtotheplotsofrelationshipbetweenthe
frequencyofoccurrenceandsizeoftheblackouts,theresearchersstatedthatthe
frequencyofoccurrenceofgreatbreakdownsismuchhigherthanexpected.The
plotreflectednotthenormalGaussiandistributionbuttheexponentialdistribution.
Exponentialfrequencydistributionischaracteristictothecomplex,chaotic
systemsinwhichtheinteractionsbetweenindividualelementsleadoftentothe
unforeseenresults.Amongotherexamplesofthecomplexphenomenawith
analogueregularityofoccurrence,earthquake,tsunami,forestfiresanddams
collapsecanberecalled.Theanalysisoftheplotsfortheup-to-nowblackoutshas
shownthattheshutdownsofthereachcomparabletothatoftheUSblackoutin
2003shalloccur,inaverage,every35years.Itisasurprisingresultas38years
elapsedfromthepreviousgreatsystembreakdown(1965).Thestudieshaveshown
thatthebulkshutdownsi.e.blackoutsarethenaturaleffectoftheelectricpower
gridoperation.Theguiltypersonspointedouteachtimetheblackoutoccurs
(neglectedtreetrimming,operator’sincorrectdecisions)arenotbuttheactorsin
muchgreatertragedy,andtheirerrorsonlyadvancethedisasterwhich,inastrange
way,isinevitable.
IntheopinionoftheUSexperts,itishighlyurgenttoadapttotheblackoutsand
toundertakeactivitieswhichsupportthesurvivaloftheconsumersandelectric
