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Chapter1:Introduction
areincreasing,andinsomecountriesabouthalfofthechildrenarebornoutside
wedlock(Billari2005,Coleman2005).Thedominanceofmarriageisdiminish-
ing:marriageratesaredeclininganddivorcesarebecomingmorefrequent(Cole-
man2005).Growingnumbersofpeoplechoosenon-maritalcohabitationinstead
oflivinginwedlock(Kiernan2000,2002).Ingeneral,thepictureofEuropean
familieshasbeenundergoingprofoundchanges(BillariandKohler2004,Phili-
pov2005).
Thispicturehasnot,however,changedtothesameextentandinthesame
wayacrossthecontinent.Evenifweconsideronlytwomaintrendsrelatedto
fertility,totalfertilityrate(TFR)declineandchildbearingpostponement,huge
cross-countryvariationscanbeobserved(seeFigures1.1and1.2).IntheSouth-
erncountries,likeSpainorItaly,fertilitylevelsareextremelylowandthepost-
ponementisadvanced.IntheNordiccountries(Sweden,Norway,Finland),
womenalsoentermotherhoodverylate,butlevelsoffertilityarerelativelyhigh.
ThesituationisdifferentagaininmostCentralandEasternEuropeancountries.
Childbearingtakesplaceatrelativelyearlyagesinthisregion,butfertilityrates
areextremelylow(CouncilofEurope2006).
Similardifferencespersistifweconsiderotherfamily-andfertility-related
trends.Thelevelsofchildlessnessvarygreatlyacrossthecontinent(Sobotka
2004),thediffusionofnon-maritalcohabitationoccursatvaryingspeeds(Kier-
nan2002,NazioandBlossfeld2003)andthenumbersofextramaritalbirths
differfromcountrytocountry(Coleman2005).Allinall,meaningfuldiffe-
rencesareobservedinrelationtounionformation,livingarrangements,andunion
dissolutions.Whethersomeformofconvergenceofthefertilityandfamilytrends
acrossthecontinentwilloccuriswidelydiscussed,andsofarnoconsensushas
beenreachedonthetopic(BillariandKohler2004,BillariandWilson2001,
FrejkaandSobotka2008,LesthaegheandSurkyn2002,Sobotka2004).
Forseveraldecades,scholarshavebeentryingtoexplainthefertilitydecline
andpredictfuturedemographicdevelopments.Asearlyasin1953Notestein
wrote:
“Itisimpossibletobepreciseaboutthevariouscausalfactors[offertility
decline],butapparentlymanywereimportant”(emphasisadded).
Halfacenturylater,thosewhotrytoexplainfertilitytrendsarestilloverwhelmed
(maybeevenmoresothanbefore)bytheplethoraofpossibleinfluences.Re-
searchersuniversallyacknowledgethatdifferenttypesoffactorsshouldbetaken
intoaccount(deBruijn1999,Lesthaeghe2001,Sobotka2004,vandeKaa1996).
Mostcommonly,theydividethesefactorsintoeconomicandnon-economicin-
fluences(e.g.,Billari2005,Kohler2001,LesthaegheandSurkyn2002,Philipov