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1.3.Influenceofinternationaltradeonthenationaleconomy:macroeconomicapproach
27
Tisrelationshipisexpressedasthemultiplierorsupermultiplierofforeigntrade.
Additionalforeigndemandforgoodsfromagivencountryincreasesgeneralde-
mandfordomesticallyproducedgoods,stimulatingemploymentgrowthandthe
useofproductionpotential28.Teend-effectofthatisanincreaseinthedynamicsof
growthandvolumeofproduceddomesticproduct.Tevalueofthatindicatormay
varyacrossbranchesdependingonthevolumeofexternaldemandforthegoods
whichthatbranchproduces29.Teforeigntrademultiplieriscalculatedasfollows:
k
±
∆
∆
Y
S
+
1
∆
∆
M
Y
where:
∆S–willingnesstosave,
∆M–importgrowth,
∆Y–GDPgrowth
Multiplierkreferstohowmanytimesthegrossdomesticproductwillincrease
asaresultofexportgrowth.Tevalueofthemultiplierdependsontheassortment
structureofexportorders.Tehigherthedegreeis,towhichtheproductgenerated
bytheseordersisprocessed,themoresecondaryorderstherewillbeforcooperative
suppliesnecessarytomakethefinalproduct,especiallyinthecaseofdomesticsup-
plies30.Along-termgrowthinforeigndemandanddepletionofproductioncapaci-
tystimulateinvestment,resultinginanintensifiedgrowthofthedomesticproduct,
knownastheforeigntradesupermultipliereffect(k
s)31.
k
S
±
∆
∆
Y
S
+
∆
∆
1
M
Y
-
∆
∆
Y
I
where:
∆S–willingnesstosave,
∆M–importgrowth,
∆Y–GDPgrowth,
∆I–volumeofadditionalinvestments
Temultiplierfunctionofforeigntradeplaysanimportantanti-recessionrole.
Temoretechnicallycomplicatedtheexportedproductisandthemoredomestic
cooperativesuppliesitrequires,thehighertheanti-recessionimpactofforeigntrade
28See:J.S.L.McCombie,A.P.Tirlwall,TeDynamicHarrodForeignTradeMultiplierandtheDemand-
OrientedApproachtoEconomicGrowth:AnEvaluation,uInternationalReviewofAppliedEconomics”1997,
Vol.11,Iss.1,pp.5–22.
29See:A.B.Trigg,R.A.Araujo,AMulti-sectorialAssessmentoftheStaticHarrodForeignTradeMultipli-
er,MPRAPaperNo.53242,https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53242/[Aug.19,2015].
30See:J.J.Polak,TeForeignTradeMultiplier,uTeAmericanEconomicReview”Dec.1947,Vol.37,
No.5,pp.889–897.
31E.Gostomski,Rolahandluzagranicznegowrozwojugospodarczymkraju[in:]Podstawyhandluzagra-
nicznego,red.H.Treder,WydawnictwoUniwersytetuGdańskiego,Gdańsk2005,p.21.
