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OpinionandAnalysis
Theendofthebelleépoque,PawełKowal
Oligarchicformsofgovernmenthavebecomethenorminthepost-Soviet
space;bothinlargercountriesandsmallerones.InGeorgia,nearlyalldecisions
aremadebybillionaireBidzinaIvanishvili,whileinMoldovathepoliticalprocess
isareflectionofabattlebetweenafewoftherichestmenwithwidepoliticaland
businessinfluence.Meanwhile,auniquesystemofoligarchyhasdevelopedin
Ukraine.Terethewealthytycoonscontroloneanotherandcompetewitheach
other.TelatestprotestsinHongKonghavealsooligarchyinthecontextasthey
weredrivenbythecollapseofthemiddleclass.
Temechanismsoftheoligarchy’sgrowingstrengtharesimilareverywhere.
Inthebeginningthereiscriticism(attimesveryjustified)ofthedemocraticelite.
Tencomessupportforacandidate(oftenaverywealthycitizen)whobecomes
thefaceofthiscriticism.Atthenextstagethereisawidewaveofpopulistcriti-
cism(afightagainsttheelite)whichusessocialmediaasitstool.Asaresultof
thismechanism,whichisbasedonmanipulation,theoligarchicstructureshave
beengettingstrongerinmorecountriesintheWest.Tisprocesswasalsowell-
illustratedbyVolodymyrZelenskyy’scomingtopowerinUkraine,butoverallitis
aquiteuniversalmatrixoftheactivitiesofthewealthiestplayerswhoactbehind
thepoliticians’backswithslogansofufightingtheoligarchy”
.
Theimperialspectre
Afterthreedecadesofthebelleépoquewesternsocietiesseemtohavebecome
somewhatboredwiththecalmlifewhereinternationallawdecidesoneverything
andbordersareupermanently”demarked.Tisboredomisaccompaniedbyuncer-
tainty,alackofbelonging,fearofclimatechangeandrefugees.Alltheseemotions
arefurtheremphasisedbythepopulists.Possiblyoneofthestrangestreactionsto
thebelleépoque,andasignindicatingitsend,isthenostalgiafortheoldimperial
order,onethatwasbuiltbystrongstatesthatwereabletodemandthesubordina-
tionofotherstatesbasedontheirmeansofimpact:political,militaryoreconomic,
butneverinaccordancewithinternationalagreements.Teirrolewastoprovide
citizenswithasenseofstabilisationandsecurity.Tiskindofmechanismexplains
whysomanyintheUnitedKingdomhaveoptedforBrexit.
Temarkofthepost-warperiodinwesternhistory,andespeciallyafter1991,
wasthemultilateraldiplomacyandstronginternationalorganisationswhichbe-
cameaforumtodeterminestates’interestandwhoseagencieswerealsorespected
bystrongplayerswhocould,theoretically,putpressureonsmalleractorsoutside
theframeworkofinternationalinstitutions.AftertheFirstWorldWartheweak-
nessoftheLeagueofNationsturnedouttobeproblematic.AftertheSecond
