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IsEuropelosingtheBalkans?,MiljenkoJergović
Opinion&Analysis
11
HardlyadaygoesbywithoutthemediainbothRepublikaSrpskaandSerbia
properreportingonthereturnofRussianinfluenceintheBalkansandCentralEu-
rope.AcertainpluralismofopinionstillexistsinBelgrade,wherePutin’sfollowers
havetoconstantlyarguetheircasewiththoseofamorepro-Europeanperspective.
HowevernosuchnuancesofopinionexistinBanjaLuka.FortheSerbsofRepublika
Srpska,Putinisademigod,astatusrathersimilartothatenjoyedbyErdoğanamong
theBożnjaks.ItisjustashamethatPutindoesnotcurrentlyhaveadaughtertogive
away–otherwisehecouldinvitehisSerbian-Orthodoxfriendstothewedding.
TeBelgradeauthorities,embodiedbytheincreasinglywell-entrenchedformer
primeministerandnowpresident,AleksandarVučić,haveforyearsbeenfollow-
ingapolicyofequidistancebetweenBrusselsandMoscow.Ontheonehandthey
declaretheirdeterminationtojointheEuropeanUnionasquicklyaspossible,
whileontheotherhandtheyinsistonbrotherlyrelationswithRussia.(Tefact
thateverythingintheBalkansisreducedtotheleveloffamilialmetaphorsisan
interestingsubjectinitself:forBosnianMuslims,Turkeyisamother;forBosnian
Serbs,OrthodoxRussiaisamother;andinSerbiaitself,Russiaisabrother.)Itis
abalancingactthatseemstoimitatetheforeignpolicyofTito’sYugoslavia,astate
thatwasalwaysatitsstrongestwhensteeringmid-waybetweenWashingtonand
Moscow.Teaimofsuchapolicyisclear:togetasmuchoutofbothsidesaspos-
sible;tousebrotherhoodwithRussiaasawayofblackmailingEurope;andclose-
nesswithEuropeasawayofblackmailingtheRussians.
Easyprey
Howeverthatisadangerouspolicytooverplay.Notonlybecauseabrotherly
embracecansometimesleadtocrackedribs,butalsobecauseitstokesnational
sentimentsthataredifficulttocontrol.Ordinarycitizens,devastatedanddemoral-
isedfordecadesbypoverty,nationalism,clericalismandpopulistpolitics,areeasy
preyforPutinandErdoğan.Whenpeoplearedesperate,dictatorsprovemoreat-
tractivethandemocrats–especiallyintheBalkans,wherepeoplehavespentmost
ofthelast20yearsbeingdisappointedbythepoliticiansthatorderlydemocratic
procedurehasburdenedthemwith.
TisissomethingthatallthepeoplesofformerYugoslaviaincreasinglyhave
incommon(withthepossibleexceptionofSlovenia,whichinthisrespectceased
tobeamemberoftheregionalongtimeago):adeepeninghostilitytowardsboth
democracyandEuropeanideals.
TeattitudetowardsEuropeisparticularlystriking.Inarecentpublicopinion
survey,forinstance,citizensofSerbiawereaskedwhethertheywouldprefertobe
