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istheentrepreneursandbankerswhobecametheforerunnersinriskmanagement,eventhough
theydidnotalwaysusetheconcept.Priceriskorstrategicriskarethefundamentalsofbusiness
andeachentrepreneur,strivingtowardsmaximisingprofitsthroughactivitiesanddecisions,
knowsorintuitivelyfeelsthathemayputhiscompanyatdifferenttypesofriskatanytime.
Riskasascientificproblemappearedintheresearchofscientistsalreadyinthe18
th
century.HereyoucanmentiontheworksofPierreFermat(1601-1665),BlaisePascal(1623-
1662)aswellasJacobBernuolli(1654-1705)andJohannBernouli(1667-1754).Inthenext
centurytheirstudieswerecontinuedbyAbrahamDeMoivre(1667-1754)andThomasBayes
(1702-1761),whospeciallycontributedtothedevelopmentofthescienceofrisk.NextPierre
SimondeLaplace(1749-1827),FrancisGalton(18221911),KarlFriedrichGauss(1777-
1855),SimeonDenisPoisson(1781-1840),JohnvonNeuman(1903-1957),andalsomany
otherscientists,greatlycontributedtothedevelopmentofthescienceofrisk.
Aconsiderablepartofknowledgeaboutrandomriskwasdevelopedalsothanksto
gamblerswhowerethefirsttostartdescribingtheconceptofriskandtriedtodescribeits
size.Here,firstofall,wemaypointtoGirolamoCardano(1501-1576)anItaliandoctor,
physicist,mathematicianandgambler.InhisBookonCastingtheDiewecanseethefirst
mathematicalrulesofprobability.Inthisworkhedefinedafractionasapossiblevalueof
probability.Anadditionalcontributiontoworksonriskwasmadebyanotherkeengambler
ChevalierdeMéré,orratherAntoineGombaud,whosoughtvariousrulesgoverninggamesof
chance.TogetherwithBlaisePascal,mentionedearlier,andPierredeFermat,theydeveloped
themethodofcalculatingtheprobabilityofrandomeventoccurrence.Inthelaterperiod,
whenthestockmarkethadalreadydeveloped,methodsandrulestostudymarketfluctuation
begantobelookedfor,includingthepossibilityto“speculate”onthestockmarket,i.e.to
playaspecifickindofgameatthestockmarket.Attheturnofthe19
thand20thcentury,Louis
BachelierpublishedtheTheoriédelaSpéculation(1900),inwhichhetriedtooutlinethe
methodsofestimatingmarketfluctuations
17.
Particularlyinthelasthundredyears,thetheoryandpracticeineconomyandwidely
understoodfinanceelaboratednumerousnewconceptsandmethodsusedinriskmanagement
processes.Inthefollowingyearsriskanalystsandresearcherswereequippedwithanalytical
toolsallowingmanagementofriskatahigherandhigherlevel.Itshouldbeemphasisedthat
particularlythe1970swerethearenaofenteringthefinancialmarketformanynewtheories
andmethodsofriskidentification,measurement,assessmentandmonitoring.Thefactthat
mayillustratetheimportanceofthisfieldofscienceisthatthescientistsdealingwiththisarea
becameNobellaureatesMarkowitz,Sharpe,Black,Sholes,Merton,Simon,Vickrey,
Mirrlees,Schelling,Aumannand,recently,in2012AlvinE.Roth,LloydShapley(forthe
resultsoftheirresearchonthegametheory).
Themilestonesinthedevelopmentofanalyticalmethodsandmodelsusedinthestudy
ofriskweretheeventsconnectedwiththeappearanceofnewanalyticaltools,themost
importantofwhicharepresentedinTable1.1.
Table1.1.Thedevelopmentofmethodsandmodelsusedinriskmanagement
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18
th17thcent.Fundamentalsoftheprobabilitycalculus(ChevalierdeMéré,Blaise
th19thcent.Principlesofmathematicallogicineconomy,utilityhypothesis(D.
1921
1938
Pascal)
Bernoulli,W.S.Jevons)
Distinctionbetweentheconceptsofriskanduncertainty(F.Knight)
Theanalysisofbondsensitivityduration(F.R.Macaulay)
17
Zarządzanieryzykiemdziałalnościorganizacji,Eds.J.Monkiewicz,L.Gąsiorkiewicz,WydawnictwoC.Beck
Warszawa2010,p.19.
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