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ANALYSISOFTHEDEBTREPAYMENTPERIODS…
7
Theamountofthedebtofthelocalgovernmentsub-sectorinPolandisshown
inTable1.Intheyears2007-2016,theLGUdebtinabsolutetermsincreasedby
over166%inPoland,whereas,forexample,thenetdebtasapercentageofthe
totalrevenueincreasedbyapprox.15percentagepoints.Since2013,however,
therehasbeenasystematicimprovementofthebasicindicatorsillustratingthe
levelofindebtednessofLGUsinPoland.Intermsoftherelativesizeofdebtat
theendof2016,ithadreturnedtothelevelsobservedatthebeginningof2010.
Moreover,thesizeofoperatingsurplusessuggeststhattheirlevelswerethehigh-
estsincethebeginningoftheglobalfinancialcrisisattheendof2008.Onlythe
totalnominalLGUdebt(PLN69billion)remainedatahighlevel,closetothe
levelsobservedattheendof2013.
ThefinancialsituationofPolishLGUshasimprovedduetotheimpactofsev-
eralbasicfactors.Ontheonehand,itistheresultofastablegrowthofrealGDP
in2014-2016(annualaverage+3.3%),whichallowedforanominalincreasein
totalLGUrevenueatanaverageannualrateof+5%.Inaddition,somesignificant
categoriesofLGUexpenditurehavedecreased.Inparticular,historicallylowin-
terestrateshavecausedtheratioofinterestcoststototalrevenuetofallto0.9%
-thelowestsince2007.However,lowinterestrates,temporarilybeneficialfor
LGUs,alsoconstituteasignificantriskforLGUs.AsDylewski(2014)shows,
interestrateriskisoneofthetwobasicriskstakenintoaccountbyLGUsinthe
managementoftheirdebtinstruments(74.2%ofreplies-‘often’or‘always’).1
Simulationsofchangesinfutureinterestrates(Kluza2016b)indicatethatan
increaseininterestratestothe2013level,combinedwithasmallincreaseincur-
rentcosts,mayleadtofinancialdifcultiesinover300LGUs.
Inaddition,lowerLGUborrowingneedsaretheresultofadecreaseinEU-
fundedinvestmentsimplementedbyLGUs.Intotal,capitalexpenditureandcur-
rentexpenditureonprojectsfromtheEuropeanUniondecreasedfromPLN23.3
billionin2014toPLN19.0billionin2015,andtoonlyPLN4.5billionin2016.
Theinitialphaseofthecycleinfluencedsuchinvestmentinrelationtothenew
EUFinancialFramework2014-2020,althoughitcannotberuledoutthatthetotal
investmentfromEUfundsmaybelowerintheentireFinancialFrameworkthan
originallyplanned.Theimprovementinthecentralgovernmentbudgetisalso
importantforthereductionoftheLGUdebt.Thiswasalleviatedbythepriority
oftheprincipleofbalancingpublicfinancesovertheprincipleoftheadequacyof
LGUrevenuesforseveralyearsafter2009(Lubińska,2017).Asaresultofthese
phenomena,aswellasseveralminorotherfactors,theoperationalsurplusesof
LGUshaveclearlyimprovedandtheirnominaldebthasdecreased(seeTable1).
TheimprovementofthefinancialconditionoftheLGUsectorattheendof
2016,illustratedinTable1,indicatesthatthissectorhadpotentiallyreturnedto
afinancialconditionsimilartothatobservedin2009.Thepurposeofthisstudy
istoverify,onthebasisofindicatorsofthedebtrepaymentperiod,whetherwe
areindeeddealingwithsuchaphenomenon.Thisstudyverifiesnotonlythe
1Thisissueisrankedsecondaftertheriskoflosingfinancialliquidity(76.6%ofreplies).The
riskofoverinvestment,rankednext,hasonly61.1%ofreplies.
