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factors,Iargue,arefastrecedinginimportance,andtheconsequencesofthis
mayincludechangesintherelationshipbetweenMemberStatesinsideand
outsidetheeurozone,creatinganewintegrationdynamicintheEU,albeit
notnecessarilyanewwaveofmonetaryunionenlargements.Otherscenarios
arepossible,too,includingadeepeningofintra-EUdivisions.
WhyDecisionstoJointheEurozoneAreBeingPostponed
Formally,theMemberStateswitha“temporalderogation”oneurozone
accessionhavenotyetadoptedthesinglecurrencybecausetheydonot
meettheaccessioncriteria—whethertheMaastrichtconvergencecriteriaon
fiscalstewardship,inflation,long-terminterestratesandmembershipofthe
ExchangeRateMechanismII(ERMII),andalsothelegalrequirements,
suchasconstitutionalprovisionsmakingitpossibletoabandonthedomestic
currency.
Butalltoooften,andparticularlyintheMembersStatesfromCentral
Europe,thefailuretomeetthecriteriahasreflectedapoliticalreckoning
topostponeeurozonemembership,drivenbythebeliefthatsovereign
economicpolicyisamustforcountriesseekingtoswitchfromacompetition
modelbasedonlowcoststoaninnovation-basedone.Furthermore,
questionshavebeenraisedaboutaccession’sactualeconomicbenefits
forthecandidateeconomies,andespeciallywhethertheseeconomiesare
indeedpartofanoptimumcurrencyareawiththeotherEUMemberStates.1
ThewidedisparitiesinpercapitaGDPandeconomicstructuresmaybring
suchacontentionintoquestion,whichwouldtranslateintoahighriskof
asymmetricshocksthat,intheabsenceofautonomousmonetarypolicyand
adomesticcurrency,wouldbehardtoovercomequickly.2Fearswerealso
expressedaboutrisingprices,whichwouldaffectpurchasingpower,slow
economicgrowth,andhampercompetitiveness.
1
ThefirsttocomeupwiththeideaofanoptimumcurrencyareawasRobertMundell
intheearly1960s.TheconceptwassubsequentlydevelopedbyRonaldI.McKinnon,
PeterB.Kennen,JeffreyA.Frankel,AndrewK.Rose,PaulKrugman,andmanyothers.
Generally,thegoalistoidentifycriteriaforcountriestohaveajointcurrencywithout
exposingthemselvestoeconomiccrises.Foratheoryoverview,see:J.Jager,K.A.Hafner,
“TheOptimumCurrencyAreaTheoryandtheEMU:AnAssessmentintheContextofthe
eurozoneCrisis,”Intereconomics,vol.48,no.5,2012,http://archive.intereconomics.eu.
2
InPolishliterature,themostcriticalassessmentoftheeurozoneandmembershipthreats
isprovidedin:S.Kawalec,E.Pytlarczyk,Paradokseuro.Jakwyjśćzpułapkiwspólnej
waluty?,Poltext,2016.
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ThePolishQuarterlyofInternationalAffairs,2017,no.2
