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CONTENTS
ARTICLES
ArmenGrigoryan
Armenia’sMembershipintheEurasianEconomicUnion:
AnEconomicChallengeandPossibleConsequences
forRegionalSecurity........................................7
ThearticlereviewsthebackgroundofArmenia’sdecisiontojointheEurasian
EconomicUnion(EEU)insteadofsigninganAssociationAgreementwiththe
EuropeanUnion.Theanalysisofthecontroversiesbehindthatdecisionand
subsequentcomplicationsisfollowedbyareviewoftheeconomiceffectsof
Armenia’sEEUmembership,includingtheinfluenceoftheRussianeconomic
crisisonArmenia.Finally,thearticleexaminestheinternationalcontextand
theregionalsecurityrisksinrelationtothedifferentaspectsofArmenia’s
growingdependenceonRussia.
RyszardMachnikowski
RussianManoeuvresintheDark..............................27
Russia’s“assertiveness”indefendingitsinterests,beitinUkraineorSyria,
shouldnotcomeasasurprisebecausethismoodisperceivedbytheKremlin
asanecessarytoolinaworldinwhichmanystatesturntomilitarymight
toforwardtheirvitalinterests.Throughhisactions,PresidentPutinwants
toconvincebothexternalactorsaswellashisownpopulationthatthe
recklessignoranceofRussia’svastinterestswillonlyleadtomorechaos.
ThesuddenemergenceoftheIslamicStateinthesummerof2014gave
Russiatheperfectpretextforamilitaryinterventionthatcouldbepresented
toboththeinternationalandhomepublicunderthebannerof“joiningthe
anti-ISalliance.”Insodoing,Russiawantedtocreatetheimpressionthat
therewasnoriftbetweenitselfandtheWest.Russia’s“gambit”inSyria
broughtimmediatepropagandaresultsforPresidentPutin—domesticpublic
supportforhimskyrocketedonceagainasitdidafterthetriumphantseizure
ofCrimea.
ViktorMarsai
Somalia:SecurityforWhom?................................35
Somaliahasgonethroughsignificantchangessince2012.Ontheonehand,
thecountryhasremainedafailedstatethatcannotpreventthespreadof
radicalismintheregion,thefederalgovernment’sinstitutionsarefragile,
