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Introduction
ArepresentativefromHarvardUniversity’sInstituteofGlobalHealthinJanuary
2019wrote:“Theriskofinfectiousdiseasecannolongerbethoughtofexclusively
intermsofrarebutdevastatingeventslikeglobalinfluenzapandemic.Moreover,
despiteconsiderableprogress,theworldrearuinsill-preparedtodetectandrespond
tooutbreaksandisnotpreparedtorespondtoasignificantpandemicthreat”
Weliveintimesofuncertaintyregardingthesourcesandconsequencesofever
newlyoccurringpathogens.Mostresearchersbelievethatitisaquestionofradical
uncertainty,notrisk.InaworldreelingfromCOVID19,itshouldhardlybeneces-
sarytoreemphasisethatcontrollingriskmeansestablishingthatreferencenarra-
ismeasurablewhereasuncertaintyismoreofacognitiveoremotionallimitation.
TheglobaluncertaintyindexattheendofApril2020duetoCOVID-19stoodat
348pointsandwasslightlyhigherthantheuncertaintyaccompanyingtheUS
Mostdecision-makersarenotevenawarethattheydonotknowhowtoobjec-
tivelyresolveadecision-makingsituationthatarises.Sometimesweobservethe
highestdegreeofuncertainty,i.e.fullawarenessthatwedonotknowthenature
itcauseshugedirectandindirectlossesofapersonal,family,nationalandglobal
nature.Itisestimatedthattheyarecomparabletothelossescausedbyclimate
expectedoccurrence,wetreatthispandemicasarealizationofsystemicrisk.As
thepeakofthecoronavirusoutbreakspasses,thereisatemptationtorecognise
thatitisasystematicrisk,andthereforeonethatwearecondemnedtoandunable
tomanage.Forcenturies,smallpoxwasconsideredtobethistypeofdisease.Only
thejointeflortoftheUnitedStatesandtheSovietUnionmadeitpossibletoover-
comethisterribleafictioninthesecondhalfofthe20
thcentury.Nowthetempta-
tionistoviewCOVID-19asasystematicriskthateachcountryisattemptingto
dealwithinitsownway.