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14
Chapter1.Internationaltradeintheglobaleconomy
Temaincauseofdisturbancetocommercialexchangeliesineconomiccrises,
whicharequicktoexpandandfar-reaching,especiallyintheconditionsofglobali-
zation.Acrisisusuallyleadstoacollapseofinternationaltrade,disproportionately
strongerthanadropinproductionactivity.Dropsintradeareusuallynotsymmet-
ricallydistributedacrosscountriesorgroupsofcountriesortypesofgoodsex-
changed.Onconfrontationwithaninternationaleconomiccrisis,theeffectsarefelt
mostacutelyincountrieswithamonoculturalexportstructure.Inexceptionalcas-
es,ifsuchacountrymaynotinfluenceglobalpricesanditsprincipalexportproduct
israpidlybecomingcheaper,adeeplocaleconomicrecessionmayfollow6.
Table10Incomeelasticitycoefficientofglobalexportandimport
intheyears1971-2014*
Incomeelasticity
1971–19801981–19901991–20002001–2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
coefficient
Export
2.05
0.83
1.89
1.39
1.96
1.13
1.23
0.97
Import
1.84
0.97
1.96
1.65
1.89
0.91
0.82
096
*fortheyears1971–2010,thevaluesrepresentaveragecoefficientsinparticulardecades
Source:BasedonthestatisticaldataofUNCTADSTAT:unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/ReportFolders/
reportFolders.aspx[Aug.24,2015]
Teexportelasticitycoefficientrepresentsthesupplypotentialofaneconomy,
whiletheimportelasticitycoefficient–itsdemandpotential.Amarketupturnis
characterizedbyoptimismandademandforimportswhichgrowsfasterthanex-
portmaymatchit.Terefore,theincomeelasticitycoefficientofimportishighand
usuallyclosetothatofexport.Duringamarketdownturn,thedifferencebetween
thecoefficientsisminimal,asconfirmedbythedatainTable1.Foreigntradeduring
aneconomicrecoveryischaracterizedbyamoreintenseresponsetoageneraldrop
ineconomicactivity7.Temeansofproductionexploitedinmanufacturingforex-
portbecome,asaresultofaslashinsalesabroad,shiftedtoothersectors,leadingto
afallindomesticdemandforimports.Tischangesnotonlythematerialstructure
ofthedomesticeconomybutmayalsotriggerashiftineconomicpoliciestowards
protectionofdomesticinterests(protectionistpolicies),and–asaresult–closethe
economytocommercialexchangewithforeignentities8.
6See:N.P.Flannery,HowBadIsVenezuela’sEconomicCrisis?,Forbes,http://onforb.es/1z9iu5P
[Aug.24,2015].
7AnOECDanalysisoftheinfluenceofcommercialexchangewithforeignentitiesontheeconomyon
aglobalscalehasshownthatintheyearsfollowingtheSecondWorldWar,a10%increaseinthevalueoffor-
eigntradecorrespondedtoa4%riseinthenationalincomepercapita.Itispossibletoassume,therefore,
thattheproportionwillbesimilarinthecaseofadropineconomicactivity.See:S.Crean,Protectionismand
theglobaleconomiccrises–theroleoftradeintheresponse[in:]TeCollapseofGlobalTrade,MurkyPro-
tectionismandtheCrisis:RecommendationsfortheG20,eds.R.Baldwin,S.J.Evenett,AVoxEU.orgPublica-
tion,London2011,pp.13–14.
8See:A.Wróbel,Międzynarodowestrukturyhandlu[in:]Geoekonomia,red.E.Haliżak,Scholar,War-
szawa2012,pp.75–123;TradeandDevelopmentReport2014,UnitedNations,NewYork–Geneva,2014.
