Treść książki
Przejdź do opcji czytnikaPrzejdź do nawigacjiPrzejdź do informacjiPrzejdź do stopki
20
WojciechCharemza
sixindependentcentralbanks,affecthowoftenactivedecisionsaretaken,
and(ii)howeffectivethesealgorithmsareinvotingthatisaimedatkeeping
inflationwithintargetbands.Problem(i)isanalysedinSection2,which
describesparticularvotingalgorithmsandpresentsthevotingactivityindex
forparticularalgorithms.Section3isdevotedtoproblem(ii)anddescribes
thesettingsofthesimulationmodelthatisusedandpresentstheresults
undertheassumptionofpurelyrandomforecastsignalsdeliveredtovoters.
Section4concludesanddiscussespossibledevelopmentsofthetechnique
proposed.
2.Thecontestants:MPCvotingalgorithmsand
votingactivity
Itisassumedthatthereare
n
membersofanMPCvotingatregularintervals
attime
t
.Allvotersaresincereinthesensethattheirdecisionsarebased
solelyontheoutcomeoftheirindividualdecisionfunctions(see,e.g.,Dietrich
andList,2004).TheMPCvotingalwaysresultsinadecisionΨ
t
=
−
1,0
or1,where
−
1standsforapro-inflationarymeasuresuchasacutinthe
interestrate,1isananti-inflationarymeasurelikeariseintheinterestrate,
and0meansthestatusquoismaintained.Todefinetheparticularvoting
schemes,thefollowingnotationisused.
Let
ui,t
denotethevotingdecisionofthe
i
-thMPCmember,
i
=1
,
2
,...,n
,
attime
t,t
=1
,
2
,...,T
,tovotefortheoutcome
k
=
−
1
,
0
,
1.
I
i,t
(k)
isits
indicatorfunctionsothat
I
i,t
(k)
=1if
ui,t
=
k
,and0otherwise.Furtheron,
letusidentifytheindicatorfunctionoftheMPCmemberwiththecasting
voteas
I
c,t
(k)
anddenotetherandomvariablesthataggregateorcountthe
votesas
I
t
(k)
=
i11
Σ
n
I
i,t
(k)
.Theparticularvotingmechanismsthatcanresultin
adecisionΨtare:
1.
TheFederalReserveBoard(FED)votingscheme.IntheFEDscheme,
onememberofMPCistheChair,whoproposesamotionthatiseither
supportedbythemajority,includingtheChair,orisnot.IftheChair
proposestomaintainthestatusquo,soΨ
t
=0,itisuncontested.The
votingdecisionisthen
Ψt={k:max(I
t
(k)
)}×I
c,t.
(k)
Inthisscheme,thenumberofvoters,
n
,isequalto12forfiveGovernors
andsevennominatedmembers.
