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Opinion&Analysis
IsEuropelosingtheBalkans?,MiljenkoJergović
dieforforeignkings,emperorsandsultans:forPutin,Erdoğan,Trump,orsecond-
ratenutcaseslikeWildersorLePen,orsomeotherwilypopulistwhosenamewe
areyettohearbutwhosephoto-fitportraitwecanalreadyvisualise.
TeBalkanshaveagainbecomeanarenaforthekindofdiplomaticmanoeuvres
thatthreatenonedaytotakeonmilitaryshape.ItishereintheBalkansthatthe
Russianshave,afteranabsenceofaquarterofacentury,returnedtotheEuropean
stage.AnditishereintheBalkansthattheTurksarere-establishingapresencein
theveryareastheyweredrivenoutofjustover100yearsago.
SohasEuropesacrificedtheBalkans?BeforetheoutbreakoftheFirstWorld
War,itlookedasifEuropeanpowershadsucceededinpacifyingtheregion.Austria-
Hungaryhadsecuredaninternationalagreementfortheestablishmentofapro-
tectorateoverBosnia-Herzegovinain1878andby1908hadannexedthecountry
outright–amovethatnobody(withtheexceptionofSerbia)seriouslyopposed.
InthecourseoftheBalkanWarsof1912and1913,Turkeywaspushedbackallthe
waytotheBosphorus.RussianattemptstoincreaseitsinfluenceintheBalkans,
throughSerbiaandtheSouthSlavsoftheAustro-HungarianEmpire,wereaserious
nuisancefactorbutnotamajorthreattopeace.AndthenGavriloPrincipkilled
theheiroftheHabsburgthroneinSarajevoand,asweknow,barelyonemonth
laterthewholeofEuropewasatwar;awarcausedbypaltrySouth-Slavrivalries
ofwhichVienna,Berlin,Paris,MoscowandLondonknewverylittleindeed.
EuropehasnotquitelosttheBalkansyet,butitwilllosethemsoonifitremains
blindtotheconsequencesthatmightfollowfromsuchaloss.TepriceofEuro-
peanisingtheBalkanstodayisprobablyhigherthanitwas20yearsago–when
agoldenopportunitytobringstabilitytotheregionwasmissed.Butitremains
incomparablycheaperthanthepricetobepaidintheeventoftheBalkanisation
ofEurope.WhenTurkey’sforeignministertalksofthecomingreligiouswarsin
EuropeandwhenheclaimsthatthereisnodifferencebetweenEuropeansocial
democratsandfascists,heiscountingontheanti-EuropeansentimentsofBosnian
Muslims,AlbaniansinMacedonia,perhapsevenAlbaniaitself.
Westillhavetimetoupsethiscalculations.Itisjustaquestionofwhetherthe
variouscapitalsofEuropereallyunderstandwhatTurkishandRussiancalculations
intheBalkansactuallyamountto.
TranslatedbyJonathanBousfield
MiljenkoJergovićisanaward-winningwriterwhosebookshavebeentranslatedinto
manylanguagesincludingEnglish,French,Italian,PolishandGerman.BorninSarajevo,
BosniaandHerzegovina,JergovićcurrentlylivesandwritesinZagreb,Croatia.
