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Daytonatdeath’sdoor
C"RISTOP"ERBENNETT
BosniaandHerzegovina’strajectoryhasbeenconsistently
andevidentlydownwardssince2006,withthepace
ofdescentacceleratingeveryyear.Post-waroptimism
disappearedlongagotobereplacedbyafatalistic
cynicism.Despitethis,theinternationalcommunity
seemscontenttooperateonthepremisethattheprospect
ofEuro-Atlanticintegrationissufficienttotransform
BiHintoaself-sustainingandstabledemocracy.
Itwasallsupposedtobesodifferent.TeDaytonpeaceprocesswasexpectedto
cometoanendwiththeclosureoftheOfficeoftheHighRepresentative,orOHR,
attheendofJune2007.TeEuropeanUnionandNATOweresupposedtothen
takeoverthepost-warreconstructionbyassistingBosniaandHerzegovina,together
withtherestoftheWesternBalkans,inmovingbeyondconflict.Ultimately,Bos-
niaandHerzegovinawastobecomeafull-fledgedmemberofbothorganisations,
bothofwhichhadhelpedachieveunprecedentedpeaceandprosperityinEurope
inthewakeoftheSecondWorldWar,therebycappingasupremelysuccessful
peaceprocess.
However,ithasnothappenedthisway.Instead,theDaytonprocess,though
obsolete,staggerson.TeOHRremainsinexistence,albeitineffectual,marginal-
isedandfundamentallyunderminedinlargepartbyitsownsteeringboard.Te
lureofEuro-AtlanticintegrationhasfailedtohavethepositiveimpactonBosnia
andHerzegovinathatitsadvocateshadhoped.Instead,thecountryistrappedin
zero-sumpolitics.Tepopulation,andespeciallytheyoung,votewiththeirfeet
andleave.Andfurthercrisesareapproaching,includingtheprospectofapolitical
vacuumwhoseconsequencesintermsofstability,bothinBosniaandHerzegovina
andthewiderregion,cannotbepredicted.
