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Themanydimensionsofhybridwarfare,EmilAvdaliani
TheKremlin’sHybridWar
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Russia’seconomicoutlook,withdecisionsoftenchanginginlinewithgeopolitics.
TishassubsequentlyallowedMoscowtobecomeakeyinfluenceongeopolitical
thinkinginTbilisi.AnotherinfluentialtoolatRussia’sdisposalisthelargenumber
ofGeorgianmigrantsworkinginRussiawhosendvastsumsofmoneybacktotheir
families.Forexample,the2006crisissawRussiadeportmanyGeorgianmigrants.
Atthesametime,Russia’sabilitytobuyintoGeorgia’scriticalinfrastructureisalso
problematic.Forinstance,Rosneft’spurchaseof49percentoftheGeorgianPetrocas
EnergyGroupinlate2014istroublingfromastrategicpointofview.Indeed,the
groupownsanimportantoilterminalattheportofPoti.TisisGeorgia’smajor
seaportandpossessesaterminalcapableofunloadingoilproductsfromtankers.
Politicaldimensionofeconomichybridwar
Georgia’seconomicvulnerabilitiesnotonlyreflectthecountry’spoorposition-
inginrelationtoRussia,butalsocreateidealconditionsfortheactivityofpro-
Russiangroups.Teseorganisationshappentobethemostradicalisedsections
ofGeorgianpolitics.Despitethis,thepoliticalimportanceofthesegroupsisof-
tenexaggeratedandtheirpoliticalinfluenceismarginalatbest.Nevertheless,they
haveafollowingthatcouldcomplicatethesituationonthegroundincaseofama-
jorsocialoreconomiccrisis.
Asisthecasegenerallywiththeanti-establishmentideasofradicalparties,the
riseofpro-RussiansentimentinGeorgiacouldbestrengthenedbygrowingeco-
nomicproblems.Tisthereforelinkstheactivitiesofpro-Russianpartiestothe
Kremlin’soverallhybridwarfarestrategyinGeorgia.
NinoBurjanadze’sDemocraticMovement–UnitedGeorgiaandIrmaInashvili’s
AllianceofPatriotsaretwomajorpro-RussianpoliticalpartiesinGeorgia.Both
haveminimalpublicsupport,thoughitshouldbenotedthatInashvili’spartydoes
havesevenmembersinparliament.Tetwopartiesareimportanttowatchasthey
bothhavecontactsamongtheRussianpoliticalleadership.Tetwoleadersshare
almostidenticalgeopoliticaloutlooks,favouringRussiaandbelievingthatWestern
integrationisacounterproductiveidea.
Pro-RussianNGOsandtheirafliatednewsoutletshavealsobecomeincreas-
inglyactiveinthecountry.Teirmessagesrangefromanti-Westernreportingto
appealstoGeorgiannationalism.Teseorganisationsalsodiscussradical-conserv-
ativeOrthodoxvalues,whichoftendonotrepresenttheofciallineoftheGeor-
gianOrthodoxChurch.Telargestpro-RussianNGOsaretheEurasianInstitute
andEurasianChoice.Teiractivitiesfocusonorganisingseminarsandconferenc-
eswhichinvolvetheparticipationofGeorgianandRussianacademicsandana-
