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RegionalismintheBalance:ReflectionsonASEANatFiftyfromaLiberalPerspective
13
apanoplyofacronymsthatabsorbforeignministriesandacademicsaroundtheregion:
mostnotably,theASEANRegionalForum(ARF),theEastAsiaSummit(EAS)and
theASEANDefenceMinisters’MeetingPlus(ADMM-Plus).Intheeconomicsphere
too,ASEANformallyleadsthenegotiationsfortheRegionalComprehensiveEconomic
Partnership(RCEP),whichembracesmoreeconomiesthananyothertradinginitiative
intheAsia-Pacific.14
Inshort,ASEANhadmuchtocelebrateonitsfiftiethbirthdayinAugust2017.
Prospectsofintra-regionalconflictremainminimal.TheASEANEconomicCommunity
(AEC)hasbeeninplacesince2015anditsmembersaregenerallygrowingricher.There
arecaveats,manyofwhichspringfromthelimitationsofthe4ASEANWay’.Nevertheless,
onbalance,thescorecardforASEANoverthepasthalfcenturymustbeapositiveone.
Moreover,theASEANrecordbroadlyvindicatesliberalthinkingaboutinternational
relations.Consciouscooperationbetweenthestatesoftheregionhashelpedtoquell
conflictandtoconstructdurableregionalinstitutions.Therehasevenbeenahaloeffect
aroundthewiderAsia-PacificthroughASEAN4centrality’inconveningregionaldialogues.
YetASEAN’sstatusasaposterchildforliberalregionalismmaybeabouttofounder
ontheshoalsofrealism.Theorganisationfacesnumerousinternalchallengesandexternal
geopoliticalpressures.Itseconomicefficacyisalsoinquestion,witheconomicintegration
evolvingorganicallyratherthanbecauseoftheAEC.ThewiderissueofASEANcentrality
isalsoinjeopardy.Thereismuchtosuggestthatamid-lifecrisisloomsratherthandeeper
regionalintegration,buttherearealsoopportunitiesandASEANmayyetdemonstrate
thatliberalinstitutionalismatregionallevelcanmitigateilliberalisminpoliticaland
economicspheresnationally.
ASEAN’sInternalChallenges
ASEAN’sfundamentalinternalchallengesareparadoxical.Ontheonehand,thereis
thequestionofitsowncentralitywithinSoutheastAsia:tothriveinthenextfiftyyears,
ASEANmustmaintainandextenditsrelevanceastheprimarycollectivemechanism
throughwhichitsmembersadvancetheirdiscretenationalgoals.Ontheotherhand,it
cannotabandonthe4ASEANWay’ofconsensusandnon-intrusionindomesticaffairs
withoutriskingabacklashamongitsmemberstatesthatcouldpullthewholeenterprise
apart.Oftheseinter-relatedchallenges,theformerloomslargeratpresent.
Thechallengeofregionalcentralityrelatestotheorganisation’slegitimacyas
perceivedbyitstwomainconstituencies,theeliteswhohavedriventheregionalintegration
projectandthecitizensofmemberstates.Thislegitimacymanifestsitselflessinpolitical
termsthanintheEU,asASEAN’smembershavecededlittleoftheirpoliticalautonomy
totheirsupranationalinstitution,butratherintermsofdeliveringareturnoninvestment
14
A.Chandra,4RegionalEconomicCommunity-BuildingAmidstRisingProtectionismandEconomic
NationalisminASEAN’,JournalofASEANStudies,2016,Vol.4,No.1,p.13.
