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KRZYSZTOFKLUZA,RYTADZIEMIANOWICZ
fromArt.243oftheActonPublicFinances-UFP(2009),whichissupplemented
byincomefromthesaleofassets.Therefore,thesurplusiscalculateddirectlyas
thediferencebetweencurrentrevenueandcurrentexpenditure(aftertakinginto
accounttherepaymentofinterest).Thisamountiscombinedwiththedebtheld
byLGUsattheendoftheperiodtoobtainanestimateofthenumberofyears
neededtopaythetotaldebt(justtheprincipal,withoutinterest).Thesimulation
assumesthatLGUswillnotcontractnewloans(apartfromthecoverageofthe
temporaryLGUdeficitoccurringduringtheyear,inaccordancewithArticle89
UFP(2009),i.e.thehypotheticalrepaymenthorizonofthedebtalreadyheldis
analysed.Atthesametime,itwasassumedthattheLGUwouldpay50%ofthe
surplussodefinedtorepaythedebt,whiletheotherhalfwouldbeallocatedtoits
furtherinvestmentactivities,includingthereplacementofexistingassets.
Simulationshavebeencarriedoutfortwobasicvariants-thefirstoneex-
aminesthedebtrepaymenthorizonbasedontheabove-definedsurplusforthe
currentyear,andthesecondoneisbasedontheaveragesurplusfromthreeyears
(forthecurrentyearandtwopreviousyears).Theanalysisisacontinuationofthe
researchpresentedinKluza(2013)andthendevelopedinGolan(2016),where,
amongothers,theimpactonLGUsoftheindividualdebtratiounderArt.243
UFP(2009)wasanalysed.Aspartofthesimulation,debtrepaymentratiosare
calculatedforallindividualLGUsandPolandintotalforindividualyearsfrom
theperiod2007-2016,whichaltogethergives28,905observationsfortheanaly-
sisoftheannualratiosand22,477observationsforthethree-yearindicator.
3.SimulationresultsofdebtrepaymentperiodbyLGUs
Thesimulationsofthedebtrepaymentperiodindicatelargechangesinthefi-
nancialconditionofLGUsasmeasuredbythisparameterintheyears2007-2016.
Untiltheendof2008,debtheldbyLGUswasshort-ormedium-term-therepay-
mentperiodcalculatedinaccordancewiththeapproachpresentedinPart2ofthe
studyfluctuatedataroundthreeyears.Afterwards,itbegantogrowdynamically
toreachalevelofapprox.12yearsin2010-2012,signallingtheweakestfinancial
conditionofLGUsinthatperiod(seealsoe.g.Zawora,2015).After2012,the
indicatorvaluesstartedtoimprovesignificantly,andattheendof2016ithad
fallento6.7years.TheanalysisofrepaymentperiodsforPolandcorroboratesthe
hypothesisformulatedbasedonTable1,thatattheendof2016theLGUsector
returnedtoafinancialconditionsimilartothatobservedattheendof2009(see
Table2).
SimilarresultswereobtainedinthecaseofthesimulationofLGUs’debtre-
paymentperiodsbasedontheirthree-yearaverageoperatingsurplus.LGUshad
thelongestdebtrepaymentperiod(12.8years)attheendof2012.Attheendof
2016,theLGUdebtrepaymentperiodhadfallento7.5years,asituationsimilar
tothataroundmid-2010(seeTable3).
