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ANALYSISOFTHEDEBTREPAYMENTPERIODS…
Table2.Repaymentperiodoftheexistinggrossdebt;simulationbasedonaone-year
surplus
11
intheyears
2007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Borough
2.7
2.7
4.7
9.3
9.5
8.3
7.0
6.5
5.8
4.6
Urbanborough
3.1
3.2
8.6
16.8
12.9
12.3
9.9
8.0
7.1
5.8
Urban-ruralborough
3.3
3.2
5.8
12.1
11.2
9.8
8.2
7.6
6.6
5.3
Ruralborough
2.2
2.0
3.0
6.1
7.3
6.2
5.3
5.2
4.8
3.7
Townwithcountyrights
3.4
4.5
12.7
19.0
20.3
23.2
14.9
12.6
11.4
10.6
County
5.4
5.3
8.8
13.9
9.7
10.9
9.4
7.9
7.2
5.4
Province
1.5
1.6
3.2
6.5
7.3
7.1
8.3
9.3
7.0
7.1
Polandintotal
2ł9
3ł2
6ł7
11ł9
12ł0
11ł7
9ł6
;ł;
7ł9
6ł7
Source:ownanalysisbasedontheMinistryofFinancedata;dataforallLGUcategories.
Table3.Repaymentperiodoftheexistinggrossdebt;simulationbasedontheaverage
surplusfromthelastthreeyears
intheyears
2009
Borough
4.1
Urbanborough
5.4
Urban-ruralborough
5.0
Ruralborough
2.9
Townwithcountyrights
7.3
County
7.9
Province
2.4
Polandintotal
5.1
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
6.9
9.5
9.5
8.1
7.3
6.3
5.3
9.8
14.9
14.3
11.5
9.8
8.0
6.5
8.4
11.6
11.6
9.6
8.6
7.4
6.1
5.1
6.8
6.9
6.2
5.7
5.0
4.2
12.6
20.5
22.8
19.5
16.4
13.1
11.5
11.8
12.6
11.4
9.8
9.3
8.0
6.5
4.3
7.0
8.1
8.2
9.0
8.3
7.4
8.5
12.2
12.8
11.2
10.2
8.8
7.5
Source:ownanalysisbasedonMinistryofFinancedata;dataforallLGUcategories.
ToverifywhetherLGUsareinasimilarsituationintermsoftherepayment
periodoftheirdebtasin2009thegoodnessoffittestsofthedistributionboth
betweenschedulesforparticularyearsandthediferencesbetweenparticularcat-
egorieswithinagivenyeararerequired.Chi-squaretestswereusedfortheanaly-
sis,calculatedforthevariantwithaone-yearoperatingsurplus.Theirresultsare
presentedinAppendix1.Theyclearlyindicatethatthedistributionofdebtrepay-
mentperiodsforeachcategoryofLGUsisstatisticallysignificantlydiferentin
2016fromthedistributionin2009(inthetests,provinceswereleftoutduetothe
insufcientnumberofunits).Inaddition,distributionsforindividualcategories
ofLGUswithinagivenyeararestatisticallysignificantlydiferent.
In2009,thedistributionofdebtrepaymentperiodswasclearlymorepolar-
ised-arelativelylargenumberofLGUshadshortrepaymentperiodsand,atthe
sametime,arelativelylargenumberalsohadthelongestrepaymentperiods.In
addition,approximately8%ofLGUshadanoperatingdeficitin2009.In2016,
thissituationlevelledout-thenumberofunitswithanaveragerepaymentperiod
increasedattheexpenseofadecreaseinthenumberofextremeobservations(see
