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JaroslavVostatek
TheoriginalWorldBankdesign,accordingtowhichtheold-ageprotectionisto
relyfirstandforemostonthemandatoryprivatepillar,mainlyfacedpracticalprob-
lemswithpublicdebt.Advocatesoftheprivatizationtriedtopromotetheprivatiza-
tionthrougha“theory”thatcountriesalreadyhaveasignificantpublicpension
debtintheformofexistingandfuturepensionentitlementspriortotheprivatiza-
tionalready–towhichcorrespondinginsurancepremiumreservesarenotcreated
(aswouldbethecaseinprivateinsurance).Andthatthisimplicitpublicpension
debthasthesamemacroeconomicconsequencesas“standard”explicitpublicdebt.
Therealityisdifferent,though:Theso-calledimplicitpensiondebtonlyrepresents
a(perhapsinteresting)theoreticalconstruction;however,itcertainlydoesnotaf-
fectfinancialandothermarkets–unliketheactualpublicdebt.
Inpractice,thegenerationofsubstantial(additional)publicdebtsduringthe
privatizationofpublicpensionschemesbasedonthe1994WorldBankdesignled
tothefactthattheprivatizationwasreducedtoapartialprivatization.Thispractice
was(mainly)elaboratedinPolandintheformofatheory,accordingtowhichitis
optimaltoperformtheprivatizationfrom50%.Itwasproclaimedthatalong-term
objectiveistoensurethataboutonehalfoftheinsurancepremiumsgoestothe
publicpensionscheme(NDC),withtheremainingfundsgoingtothemandatory
privatepillar.However,theinitialrelationof5:3or62.5%to37.5%,asappropri-
ate,wasusedasthebasis.Advocatesofthediversificationtheorystatethatthe
Chileanmodel:
–doesnotdiversifyrisks(onemonopolyreplacesanothermonopoly);
–mayhardlybeimplementedincountrieswithdominantpay-as-you-gosystem.
Manyopinionswerepublishedonhowdifferentpensionfinancingdesignsare
exposedtovariousrisks.Thefollowingtablereproducestheoverviewpreparedby
Polishauthors–advocatesofthediversificationtheory.Ipointoutthattheviews
orriskassessments,asappropriate,ofotherauthorsdiffergreatly.
Table1.Riskswithdifferentdesignsofpensionfinancing
Ageingpopulation
Unemployment
Politicalbargaining
Financialmarketcrisis
Inflation
Risk
Pay-as-you-go
Lessexposed
Notexposed
Exposed
Exposed
Exposed
Lessexposed
Lessexposed
Notexposed
Notexposed
Exposed
Funded
Source:[Chlonetal.1999]
ThePolishparadigmaticreforminspiredbythediversificationtheorywasim-
plementedasof1999.AsimilarreformwasimplementedinSlovakia6yearslater
–insurancepremiumsweredividedbetweenthesocialold-ageinsurancescheme
