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CONTENTS
ARTICLES
WojciechLorenz
NATOataCriticalCrossroads................................9
Todealwithchallenges,NATOneedsastrategicvisionthattranslates
intopoliticalandmilitarycredibilityoftheArticle5guaranteebutatthe
sametimemakestheAlliancemorerelevantforitsmembersthatdonotfeel
threatenedbyRussia.ThereareanumberofareaswhereNATOwillhaveto
overcomethelowestcommondenominatortodelivertangibleresults.
MārisAndžāns
PatchingtheShield:TheBalticStates
ontheRoadtowardsPracticalNATOGuarantees.................13
Latvia,LithuaniaandEstoniabecamemembersofNATOin2004.However,
theybecamemembersonlyonthemap,notinpractice.TheBalticStatesare
stillthemostvulnerableandthehardesttodefendintheeventofaggression
fromthelegalsuccessorofthecountrythatnecessitatedthefoundationof
NATO.Russia’sarmedconflictwithGeorgiaanditsmilitaryinterventionin
Ukrainehavedemonstratednotonlyitscapabilitybutalsowillingnesstouse
militaryforce.BecauseoftheUkrainiancrisis,Alliesproceededwithsome
tangible,albeitsymbolic,stepstoreassuretheBalticStatesthattheyremain
undertheumbrellaofthecollectivedefencepolicy.Asaresult,itissaferbut
stillnotsafeonNATO’seasternflank.
PavelK.Baev
CohesionandFlexibilityofNATO’sResponse
toRussia’sProblem........................................22
ThenewstrategicrealityfortheAtlanticAllianceisshapednotbytheincrease
ofinstabilityanduncertainty,butbyaverydefiniteincreaseofdirectmilitary
threatsfromapowerfulandaggressiveneighbour.Thisadversaryperceives
militarypowerasthemosteffective,indeedtheonly,availableinstrument
ofpolicy,andhasacquirednewskillsinapplyingitinboth“hybrid”and
traditionalways.Russiaconsidersitsreadinesstodealwithhighsecurity
risksasanimportantpoliticaladvantage,andisrelentlesslyexploiting
everypotentialdivisioninWesternunitybyseekingtoundermineNATO’s
abilitytoactinatimelyandcohesiveway.Moscowprobesandtargets
strategicvulnerabilitiesinNATO’ssecurityposture,andtriestomaximiseits