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RecoveryoftheEurozoneandaNewDynamicinEuropeanIntegration…
betweenMemberStatesintheeurozoneandthosewithoutthesinglecurrency
hasalsobeennarrowing,weakeningtheargumentagainstaccessionbased
ontheeurozone’sstagnation(Figure1).
Thistrendmayindicateasolidfoundationforgrowthinthesingle
currencyarea.8Indeed,duringthecrisismanyMemberStateslaunched
deepreformstowardsmakingthelabourmarketmoreflexibleandproviding
amuchfriendlierenvironmentforbusiness.Fiscalconsolidation,until
recentlycriticisedastooradicalandhavinganegativeimpactondemand
inheeconomy(Figure2),isnowbearingfruit,too.Andthisisnotthe
onlygoodnews.Asdemonstratedbylabourmarketstatistics,theeurozone
hasbeenincreasinglyeffectiveincopingwithunemployment(Figure3)and
withitsinternalasymmetries,asseenintheconvergenceofMemberStates’
businesscycles,thehighestintwodecades.Andtheeuroisbeginningtoregain
itspositionontheinternationalfinancialmarkets.AccordingtoEuropean
CentralBankdata,releasedinsummer2017,theeuro’scontributiontothe
volumeofinternationalpaymentshasincreasedoflate,andsohastheuse
oftheeuroasareservecurrencybycentralbanks.Thisisareversalofthe
adversetrendsseenduringthecrisis.9
Obviously,thisgoodnewsisnotyetaguaranteeofthesinglecurrency’s
ultimatesuccess.Theeurozonehashadbriefspellsofimprovementonlytobe
followedbyseriousbreakdowns.Andtherearestillunresolvedissues,thebiggest
onebeingtheeconomicconditionofItaly,10thearea’sthird-largesteconomy,
fraughtforyearsbybanking,public-finance,andlabour-marketdifficulties.Also,
theeurozonehasyettocompleteanarrayofreforms,especiallytheformationof
thebankingunionandreconstructionofitsfiscalmanagement.
Thesereservationsnotwithstanding,muchseemstoindicatethatthe
eurozoneeconomyisindeedturningthecorner,whichmaycarryimportant
politicalconsequences,especiallyforcandidatecountries.Theirpublicswill
surelynoticetheimprovedconditionintheeurozone,andmaytilttowards
amorefavourableviewoftheideaofadoptingthesinglecurrency(something
currentlyopposedby72%ofPoles11).
8
J.Matthes,A.Iara,B.Busch,“DieZukunftderEuropäischenWährungsunion.Istmehr
fiskalischeIntegrationunverzichtbar?,”IW-Analysen,no.110,2017.
9
EuropeanCentralBank,Theinternationalroleoftheeuro,July2017,www.ecb.europa.eu.
10
P.Legrain,“ItalyontheBrink,”ProjectSyndicate,8December2016,www.project-
syndicate.org.
11
T.Nyczka,“NowysondażCBOS.PolacychcąUniiEuropejskiej,alenieeuro,”Wyborcza.pl,
27April2014,http://wyborcza.pl.
ThePolishQuarterlyofInternationalAffairs,2017,no.2
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