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KatarzynaZawalińska,AnnaCiechomska,BłażejJendrzejewski
1.Introduction
ChangesintheCommonAgriculturalPolicyforthebudgetaryperiod2014-
2020arecreatingnewchallengesforscientificmodellerswhoaimtoevaluatethe
newpolicy.HerewepresentawaytohandlethemwithinComputableGeneral
Equilibrium(CGE)models.CGEmodelsowetheirnametoaparticularspecificity.
First,theyareugeneral”
,becausetheyimitatethebehaviourofalleconomicopera-
tors.Theyareucomputable”
,becausetheygenerateresultsexpressedinnumbers.
Finally,theyareuequilibrium”models,becausethepricemechanismalwaysleads
allmarkets(exceptthelabourmarket)toequalizationofsupplyanddemand
(Dixon,Parmenter,Ammanetal.1996).Theirdetailedandconsistentdatabase
isbasedoninput-outputtables(IO)andsocialaccountsmatrices(SAMs).Leon
Walrasisknownasthefatherofthetheoryofgeneralequilibrium,whoformalized
atheoreticalgeneralequilibriummodel.Then,inthe1930s,WassilyLeontief
createdaninput-outputtable,whichservedtocreateamatrixofsocialaccounts.
CGEmodelsreflectthestructureoftheentireeconomyatonepointintime.They
arebasedonthousandsofsystemsofequations,whicharesolvedsimultaneously
andtheyexplicitlycapturethebehaviourofindustries,households,investors,
governmentandexporters.Theyallowtocapturenotonlythedirectimpactofthe
CAP
,butalsomultipliereffects,takingintoaccountalsoothersectorsofeconomy.
CGEmodelsarebasedontheoptimizationcarriedoutbyeconomicagents.Besides
optimization,atleastafewotherfeaturesthatdistinguishthemfromcompetitive
solutionscanbementioned.Takingintoaccountboththedemandandthesupply
sideaswellasthechangesinthepriceleveldistinguishesthem,aboveall,from
partialequilibriumandinput-outputmodels.CGEmodelsarestronglygrounded
intheory,theyarebasedontherelationshipsinspaceratherthantimeand,unlike
macro-econometricmodels,donotrequirelongtimeseriesdata.Theyalsoinclude
moredetaileddataontheindustrystructurethanmacro-econometricmodels.
TheCGEmodelsareusedforpolicyevaluationbymanyinternationalinstitutions
(OECD,WorldBank,IMF,EuropeanCommission,etc.).Therearealsomany
studiesgivingoverviewofthepolicyevaluationswithuseoftheCGEmodels,to
mentiononlyFossatiandWiegard(2002)orHorridgeetal.(2005).TheCGEmodels
provedalsoveryusefulintheevaluationofvariousagriculturalandenvironmental
policies(e.g.OECD2002,2015).
ThemainmodificationsafterthenewreformoftheCAPPillar1(direct
payments)include:newbasicpaymentsscheme(BPS),reductionofdirect
payments,newpossibilityofshiftingfundstoPillar1fromPillar2andtheother
wayround,newugreening”requirementstowardsdirectpaymentsandgreening
equivalentsbetweenPillars.ThreemainchangesregardingPillar2whichhas
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WieśiRolnictwo4(173)/2016
