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Introduction
9
therealeconomy;secondly,uninhibitedaccesstodollarfundsasinternational
money;thirdly
,maintainingtheliquidityoffinancialmarketsandthereliableopera-
tionofCCPs(platformsthatcleartransactionsviaderivativefinancialinstruments).
Theundisputedpracticalimportanceoftheresearchundertakenrequiresspecial
caretoadjustitscognitiveframeworktothecomplexityoftheissuesraised.The
empiricalandtheoreticalmaterialofthisbookisdividedintothreechapters
reflectingthethreedimensionsofthepandemicdescribedwithin.Thefirstdimen-
sionisthetimeandspaceinwhichweconsiderthephenomenonunderstudy.
Afullfinancialcyclelasts12-16years.Afullepidemiologicalcycleincorporates
threevirusincubationperiods,eachlastingtwoweeks,andananalogousperiod
fortheepidemictofadeout.Itshouldberememberedthatthemethodofexiting
onesystemiccrisisdetermineshowthesubsequentoneensues.ThelastSARS
epidemicoccurredin2003.Inordertohelprecoverfromthisepidemic,France
shareditsexperienceinvirologywithChinaandsupportedtheestablishmentof
atop-class(4)laboratoryinWuhantoconductthemostadvancedresearchinthis
field.Manyresearchersregardhumanerroratthislaboratoryasthesourceof
COVID-19.Researchiscurrentlyunderwaytoverifythishypothesis.
Methodologicallysoundresearchshouldcontainlogicallystructuredelements.
Thefirstoneisadescriptionofthephenomenonunderstudy;thesecondone
involvesitsmeasurementandscale,whilethethirdisacomparisonintime,
spaceandtraditionofscientificthought.Together,theyformafairoverviewofthe
achievementsoftheirpredecessors.Thenextstageshouldbeanevaluationofthe
currentstateofplay.Atthisstage,itisnecessarytoevaluatetheresultsobtained.
Thecognitivepowerofastudyismeasuredonthescaleofclarifiedvariancesof
thestudyresultsandtheirabilitytopredictthefuturecourseofevents.Atthis
stageofthestudy
,themethodofforecastinganddeterminingearlywarningsignals
isapplied.
Thisgeneralresearchschemeliesattheheartoftheproposedstructureforthis
book.Thefirstpartofthebookpresentsthestagesofsystemicriskmanagement.
Atfirst,decision-makersdonotwanttoadmitthattheyarefacedwithadecision-
makingsituation.TheChineseauthoritiesreportedlyhidthenewsofthevirus
escapingthelab.Thecostofdelayingrecognitionthatasystemicriskhasemerged
isveryhigh.Thenextstepistomeasuretheriskofawhiteswanintheformof
valueatriskorablackswanbyusingspecialstatisticalmodels.Whenthelarge
scaleoflossesisknown,anattemptismadetosharethemwithstakeholders.In
formalmodels,theriskdiversificationorrisktradingistakenintoaccount.The
practicetodatehasbeentopassonthecostsofthesystemicrisktoresidenttax-
payers.Currently
,thesecostsarepassedwithincreasingfrequencytootherpartici-
pantsinvalue-creationchainsandlinksincriticalinfrastructure.Thus,increasing
systemicriskbecomesanacceptedmethodofmanagingit.Inaperiodofpanic
drivenbyfearforone’sownlife,itisrelativelyeasytointroduceundemocratic
changesinthefunctioningofstateandsociety.