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1.1Basicproblemsofpersonalfinance
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cashflowsisthefollowing:atthebeginningthereis(oneormore)outflow,thenin
thefuturethereis(atleastone)inflow.Infinancing,typicaltermstructureofcash
flowsisthis:atthebeginningthereis(oneormore)inflow,theninthefuturethereis
(atleastone)outflow.
Inthisbook,thetermfinancingisusedinabroadermeaning.Namely,itrefers
toalltypesofactivitiesaimedatsupplyingfinancialmeansforcoveringthe
expenditureswhicharenecessarytorealizesomefinancialgoalsofahousehold.
Thismeansthatboth,investingandanykindofloantaking,belongtothescopeof
financing.Investingisthenusedasatoolofthepre-financing,whereascreditsand
otherloans-forpost-financing.
Financialtheoryputsverystrongemphasisontwomethodologicalissues:
valuationandriskanalysis.Personalfinancereliesstronglyonthesemethods.This
bookisdevotedtoriskanalysis,butitalsousesvaluationmethodology.
Thereisanotherterm,whichhasaverystrongconnectiontopersonalfinance.
Thisisthe“privatewealthmanagement”,whichreceivedalotofinterestinthelast
twentyyears.Sometimesbothtermsareusedassynonyms,butaftertheanalysisof
literatureandpractice,wewouldliketodrawamaindistinctionbetweentheseterms.
Personalfinanceisawiderterm,and:
•
Itconcentratesonthelifetimegoals;
•
Itlooksatallactivitieswherecashflowisinvolved(investment,financing,
consumptionexpenditures,etc.);
•
Itdoesnotsetwealthrestrictions;
Privatewealthmanagementis(usually)anarrowerterm,and:
•
Itconcentratesoninvestmentgoals;
•
Itlooksonlyoninvestmentactivities;
•
Itmaysetwealthrestrictions,beinglimitedtotheso-calledHighNetWorth
InvestorsandUltraHighNetWorthInvestors.
Thedynamicdevelopmentoftheoryandpracticeofpersonalfinancehasbeen
drivenbyseveralfactors.Thefirstoneisthegrowthofthehouseholdwealthinmany
countriesintheworld.Toprovideanexample,letuslookatthedatapublished
annuallybyCreditSuisseintheWealthGlobalReport.Thereportshowsaverylarge
increaseofthehousehold’swealthintheperiodfrom2000to2014.Letusgivethe
numbersforthreecountriesbelongingtothreedifferentgroups.Datashowsthe
growthofwealthperonememberofthehouseholdfrom2000to2014:
•
Switzerland-growthfrom232,548USDto580,686USD-increaseby
149.7%;
•
Poland-growthfrom8,871USDto27,731USD-increaseby212.6%;
•
Bangladesh-growthfrom1,037USDto2,017USD-increaseby94%.
Theoppositeexamplesareveryfew,forexampleBelarus-fallfrom2,224USD
to2,179USD,whichisadecreaseby2%.
Thesecondimportantfactorwhichcontributedtothedevelopmentofpersonal
financeistheincreasingcomplexityofmanyfinancialinstruments.Unfortunately,it
issometimesalsolinkedwiththeirlowtransparency.Thiscausesthenecessityof