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ThenewGreatGamethatisnot,FilippoCostaBuranelli
Opinion&Analysis
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more,NATO’sattractivenessasapartnertoCentralAsianstatesislikelytocontinue
todecrease,asitshiftsitsattentionfromAfghanistantootherchallengescloser
tohome,includingRussiaandEasternEurope.DuetoincreasedNATO-Russia
tensions,closecontactswiththeorganisationmaycreateadditionalproblemsfor
someCentralAsiannationsastheycouldelicitanegativereactionfromMoscow.
Inthisrespect,USPresidentDonaldTrumphasalreadystatedthattheUS
willnotbeinvestinginforeignaidandassistanceprogrammesinCentralAsia.In
hiserraticforeignpolicytrajectory,thisseemstobeasolidstatement.According
tothecurrentUSadministration’splans,aidtotheCaucasusandCentralAsiais
settobeslashedbymorethanhalf,from218.1millionUSdollarsin2016to93.1
milliondollarsin2018.TepoliticalscientistArielCohenhasrecentlyarguedon
thepagesoftheNationalInterestthatuAmerica’snextsecuritycompetitionwillbe
inCentralAsia”
,andthattheUSuneedstoviewthechangesinEurasiaasasetof
political-military,diplomaticandeconomicopportunities”
.Yet,whytheUSwould
havetocompeteforsecurityintheregionwheresecurityisagoalsharedbyeve-
ryone,andwhattheseopportunitiesare,isnotexplained.Today,ifanything,one
ofthemajorcriticismsmadeagainstUSadministrations,bothpresentandpast,
hasbeenthatofalackofaclearandrationalpolicytowardCentralAsia.
MotherRussia
Russia’sstrategyintheregionisstronglytiedwiththeideathatCentralAsia
ispartofthepreviouslyexistingSovietUnionandhenceisbasedontheideaof
aneighbourhood.Whileinthe1990sRussia’sengagementwiththeregionwas
limitedduetounfavourableinternalpoliticalandeconomicconditions,afterSep-
tember11th2001ithasexpandedconsiderably.WhileRussiaisverymuchaware
thatitisnottheonlygreatpowerwithstronginterestsintheregion,ithasrecently
carriedoutsignificantstepsinthefieldsofsecurity,bynegotiatingnewmilitary
baseleaseswithKyrgyzstanandTajikistan.Ithasalsoincreaseditsmilitarysup-
pliestoKazakhstanandreinforceditseconomiccloutintheregionbyincluding
KazakhstanandKyrgyzstanintheEurasianEconomicUnionanddiscussingac-
cessionprocedureswithTajikistan.Moreover,Russiahassoughttostrengthenits
economicinfluenceintheregionthroughseveraladditionalparallelinitiatives,
suchastheEurasianDevelopmentBank,theAnti-CrisisFund,andtheFreeTrade
ZoneAgreementoftheCommonwealthofIndependentStates(CIS),allfeaturing
astrongRussianpresenceintermsofcapitalinvested.
RussiaextendsitsinfluenceinCentralAsiabyensuringthatdomesticlawsof
thefiveregionalstatesmirror,totheextentthatitispossible,thoseapprovedin
