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ThenewGreatGamethatisnot,FilippoCostaBuranelli
Opinion&Analysis
11
Fromamilitaryperspective,ChinaiskeentoleavethegroundtoRussia.From
aneconomicandinfrastructuralviewpoint,however,Beijingisbecomingmore
assertive,tothepointthatsomecountriessuchasKazakhstanandKyrgyzstan
haveseenprotestsandviolentdemonstrationsagainsttheChinese,especiallywith
respecttolandconcessionsandlowenvironmental
standards.CountrieslikeTurkmenistanandTajikistan
BothRussiaand
arenowheavilydependentonChinesedemands(for
Chinahavemanaged
energyinthecaseoftheformerandlandinthecase
toachievetheirgoals
ofthelatter)inreturnforinvestments.Tismaycre-
atearelationofstrongeconomicdependencyinthe
intheregionwithout
future.IntheCentralAsiancontext,bothRussiaand
clashingabrasively
Chinahavemanagedtoachievetheirgoalswithout
withoneanother.
clashingabrasivelywithoneanother,partiallybecause
Chinaisinterestedinorderandstability,whicharewellfacilitatedbytheuaxisof
convenience”withRussia.Atleastthusfar,therefore,theRusso-Chineseco-oper-
ationinCentralAsiahasbeenworkableandBeijingseemstohaveaninterestin
keepingtheregionunderRussia’spoliticalandsecurityumbrella.
Therealprotagonists
Tethreestrategiesoutlinedaboveshouldnot,however,obscurethefactthat
theCentralAsianrepublicsareactivelyengagingthegreatpowersbyrelyingon
theirsovereignprerogativesandpursuingtheirownstrategicgoals.Tisfurther
weakensthenotionofanewGreatGame.Ifanything,theCentralAsianstatesdo
havepreferences,goals,aimsandstrategies,too,aswellasinterestsanddisinter-
ests,politicalallegiances,regionalbalancesofloyaltiesandalignments.TeUShas
beenexpelledmilitarilyfromtheregion,bothfromUzbekistanandKyrgyzstan,
inrecentyears,buthasbeenkeptasasecuritypartnerandproviderofweapons.
Russia’sinfluencehasbeendilutedovertheyearsbywelcomingChinaasanim-
portantplayerwhichhaspreventeditfromestablishingacoherenthegemonicbloc
intheregion.Turkmenistan’sandUzbekistan’sreluctancetojoinRussia-ledmul-
tilateralformatsisacaseinpoint.Concernsabouttheimportanceofinternation-
allawandterritorialintegrityrepeatedlyvoicedininternationalforaafterRussia’s
interventioninUkrainehavealsofoundmoreprominenceinCentralAsiancoun-
tries’foreignpolicydiscourses.WithrespecttoChina,itseconomicinterestsin
theregionhavebeenalignedwiththoseoftheeliteandtherulingcadresinCen-
tralAsia,thusprovingonceagainthattheCentralAsianrepublicsarenotpassive
observersintheredefinitionoftheregionalcontextbutratheractiveprotagonists.
