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WOJCIECHLORENZ
NATOataCriticalCrossroads
AsNATOpreparesforthe2016WarsawSummit,thecohesionofthe
AllianceisputtothetestbynewthreatsemanatingfromRussia,theMiddle
East,andNorthAfrica.NATOistryingtoadapttotheworstsecuritycrisis
inEuropesince1990,butitisstillfarfromcertainthattheAlliancewillpass
thebar.Twenty-eightsovereignstateswithsometimesdivergentinterests
arepreoccupiedwithshort-terminterestsratherthanthestrategicvision
necessaryforeffectiveaction.
ThereisacommonunderstandingthatNATOlostitsraisond’êtreafterthe
endoftheColdWarbut,atthesametime,thereisawidespreadmisconception
aboutwhatconstitutestheAlliancetodayandwhatlimitationsitmust
overcometoadapttonewchallenges.Tounderstandtheselimitations,one
mustbrieflydelveinto21stcenturyNATO.DuringtheColdWar,theAlliance
focusedonterritorialdefenceanddeterrenceofconventionalandnuclear
aggression.ButwiththedissolutionoftheSovietUnionandtheWarsaw
Pact,theclearlydefinedthreatofexistentialproportionsdisappeared.To
adapttothistectonicshiftinthegeopoliticalenvironment,NATOunderwent
afundamentalcharacterevolution.Formorethantwodecades,NATO’s
centralpolicieshavebeendrivenbytheabsenceofstate-to-stateconflict,the
desiretoeradicateColdWardivisionsandthedeterminationtobuildgood
relationswithRussia.Withnoconventionalconflictinsight,theAlliance
hasdriftedawayfromtheabilitytodefenditsownterritorytowardsbeing
anorganisationabletoruncrisis-managementmissionsandpromotebroader
securitythroughcooperationwithdifferentcountries.
Overtheyears,NATOmembershavelostthecapabilityandinstitutional
memorynecessarytorunlarge-scale,high-intensitywarfare.The
developmentoflightdeployableforcesthatcanbesustainedforalongperiod
inmultinationalenvironmentshasbecomeapriority.Thenewdemocracies
ThePolishQuarterlyofInternationalAffairs,2016,no.1
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