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NATOataCriticalCrossroads
First.NATOwillneedtofurtherstrengthentheeasternflanktoachieve
alevelofcredibledeterrenceagainstRussiaonaconventionallevel.NATO
reactedtothecrisisinUkrainewiththetemporarydeploymentoftroops
totheAlliance’sborderstatesandduringthe2014Walessummitadopted
aReadinessActionPlanthatwillprovidetheAllieswithaveryhighreadiness
brigadeof5,000troopsdeployablewithindaysandstrengthenedfollow-
onforcesof30,000deployablewithinweeks.Atthesametime,Russia
hasdemonstratedthecapabilitytomobiliseabout150,000troopscloseto
NATOborderswithin72hours.Someexpertsindicatethatthisregional
superioritymaybeexploited,notonlyforintimidationandcoercionbutalso
inscenariosthatincludedifferentsortsofincursionsintotheBalticStates.
ShouldNATObeunabletoclaimbacklostterritory,itwouldhavestrategic
consequencesforthewholeAllianceandwouldcompromiseitasapillarof
transatlanticsecurity.ThatiswhytheBalticcountriesandPolandadvocate
thepermanentdeploymentofNATOtroopsandequipmentontheterritory
oftheborderstatestostrengthenitsdeterrenceandshortenthetimetoreact
inacrisissituation.InMay2015,PolandalsoannouncedWarsaw’sstrategic
adaptationinitiative,asuggestionoffurthermeasuresforNATOthatwould
facilitatethedevelopmentofthenecessarycapabilitiesandforceposture
bettershapedtorespondtoaRussianthreat.
Second.ItisnecessaryfortheAlliancetoreassessthecredibilityofits
nucleardeterrence.RussiaresortstoopennuclearthreatsagainstNATO,
andthepresenceoftacticalIskandermissilesintheBalticSearegionwould
haveseriouspoliticalandmilitaryconsequencesduringacrisis,weakening
Westernpoliticalwilltoact.Russia’ssubsequentmessagingwouldmake
anuclearthreatmoreviableduringthecrisis.Facedwiththeriskofnuclear-
levelescalationwithoutcrediblewaystorespond,NATOwouldbeforcedto
acquiesceattheearlystagesofanyconfrontation.Yet,tomakeanychanges
innuclearposturingismuchmorechallengingthanaugmentingconventional
deterrence.
Third.NATOmustboostitssupportfortheSouthernFlankthrough
crisismanagementcapabilitiesandstrengthenedpartnerships.Therefugee
crisisandterroristthreataresharplyfeltacrossEurope,eveninthefarnorth.
ButAlliesinthesouthwhodonotfeeldirectlythreatenedbyRussiaprefer
NATOtobecomemoreeffectiveindealingnotonlywithdistantcrisesin
MENAbutalsotheirimmediateconsequencesforinternalsecurity.These
southerncountriesarealsoconcernedthatinvestmentsintheeastwill
ThePolishQuarterlyofInternationalAffairs,2016,no.1
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