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MohammadHoushisadat
Introduction
Energyhasalwaysbeenregardedasamatterofsecuritytoastateor
people1andwillbethemostsignificantchallengeinthe21stcentury.2Whilst
energysecurityistraditionallyconcentratedonoilsupply,3naturalgashas
increasinglybecomethe“fuelofchoice”4andisthefastest-growingfossil
fuelinuseglobally.5Therefore,securityofacountry’sgassupplyhasbecome
afocusofglobalenergyliterature.
Theenergymixintheworldwillchangebetween2010and2030,mainly
awayfromoilandtowardsrenewableenergiesandnaturalgas.6Theglobal
gasdemandwillincreasebyupto50%bytheendofthenextdecadeandits
shareintheglobalenergymixwillrisefrom21%in2010to25%in2030.7Itis
expectedthatglobalLNGtradingwilldoubleby20208withtheriseinprices.9
TheEUasawholewillbethetopgasimporterby2030,10bringing
in80%ofthegasitneedsafter2020.11TherateofEULNGimportswill
risebycloseto90%in2020comparedto2010,andthispercentagewill
increasefurtherby2030.Forthisreason,theUnionisexpectedtoimport
vastquantitiesofLNGinthecomingyears,withthemorethan31terminals
intheregionprovingthispoint.Inaddition,24ofthesefacilities,orroughly
80%,areintheUK,France,SpainandItaly,whicharetheentrypointsfor
1
F.McGowan,“PuttingEnergyInsecurityintoHistoricalContextEuropeanResponsesto
theEnergyCrisesofthe1970sand2000s,”Geopolitics,vol.16,no.3,2011,p.480.
2
G.Bahgat,EnergySecurity:AnInterdisciplinaryApproach,JohnWiley,Chichester,2011,
pp.1-2.
3
A.Cherp,J.Jewell,“TheThreePerspectivesonEnergySecurity:IntellectualHistory
DisciplinaryRootsandthePotentialforIntegration,”CurrentOpinioninEnvironmental
Sustainability,no.3,2011,p.203.
4
Eurostat,PanoramaofEnergy—EnergyStatisticstoSupportEUPoliciesandSolutions,
OfficeforOfficialPublicationsoftheEuropeanCommunities,Luxembourg,2009,p.6.
5
EnergyInformationAdministration,AnnualEnergyOutlook2013withProjectionsto
2040,WashingtonD.C,April2013,p.41.
6
BritishPetroleum,EnergyOutlook2035,London,January2014,p.13.
7
InternationalEnergyAgency,AreWeEnteringaGoldenAgeofGas?,SpecialReport,
Paris,June2011,pp.7-8.
8
CEDIGAZ,WorldLNGMarket:CurrentDevelopmentsandProspects,Paris,24June
2011,p.6.
9
InternationalGasUnion,WorldLNGReport,Oslo,2013,p.35.
10
EuropeanCommission,KeyfactsandfiguresontheexternaldimensionoftheEUenergy
policy,WorkingPaper,SEC(2011)1022final,Brussels,7September2011,p.2.
11
BritishPetroleum,EnergyOutlook2030,London,January2012,pp.78-79.
8
ThePolishQuarterlyofInternationalAffairs,2015,no.1
