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MohammadHoushisadat
-Competitionwillincreaseamongmajorimportersastheuseofnatural
gasrises;
-TheEUwillbetheforemostnaturalgasimporterworldwideby2030;
-LNGtradingwillincreasefasterthangastradedviapipelines.
Theresearchhereinhasacomparableoutlooktomostoftheinternational
energyorganisations’projectionstoabout2030-2035,includingthe
InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration
(EIA),InternationalGasUnion(IGU)andOPEC.Onthisbasis,EUleaders
andtheEuropeanCommissionhavealreadyemphasisedtheyear2030in
variousagreementssince2000,suchasthegreenpapersof2000and2006,
itsenergypolicyof2006,andarecentdocumentreleasedinOctober2014.
The2000greenpaperalsoanticipatedagreaterrelianceonimportsinthe
future,amountingtoaround80%ofnaturalgasneedsin2030.14These2030
policyframeworksaimtomaketheEuropeanUnion’seconomyandenergy
systemmorecompetitive,secureandsustainable.
BP,initsEnergyOutlook2030,theIEA,initsspecialreportin2011
titled“AreweenteringtheGoldenAgeofGas?”anditsInternationalEnergy
Outlookin2013,haveestimatedthatgasconsumptionanddemandwillgrow
fasterworldwidethanforotherhydrocarbons.Naturalgasconsumptionin
theEUgrewfrom18%in1990to24%in2009,basedontheBP“Statistical
ReviewofWorldEnergy”ofJune2011,so“energysecurity”withintheEU
means“securityofthegassupply.”15LucianiandBahgat16arguethatthe
unconventionalgasrevolutioncouldreshapetheglobalgasandLNGsystems.
However,theEnergyDirector-GeneralwithintheEuropeanCommission,in
itsfinalreportonunconventionalgasinEurope,publishedon8November
2011,arguedthatgasproductionfromunconventionalresourceswithinthe
EUwillfaceuptosomeconstraintsduringthenextdecade,mostlybecause
ofthecostsinvolved.Moreover,thelowrateofprogressinrenewablesinthe
EUaffectstheamountofimportedpipelinegasandLNGinthefuture.The
shareofrenewablesoftotalprimaryenergysourceswithintheEUwas9%
in2010,andthispercentagemuststandat20%by2020.However,Günther
Oettinger,theEU’sex-CommissionerforEnergy(2010-2014),saidthe
14
BritishPetroleum,EnergyOutlook2030,op.cit.,p.79.
15
CentreforEuropeanReform,Green,Safe,Cheap,WhereNextforEUEnergyPolicy?,
September2011,p.83.
16
PersonalinterviewwithG.Luciani,UK,4February2012;personalinterviewwith
G.Bahgat,25March2012.
10
ThePolishQuarterlyofInternationalAffairs,2015,no.1
