Treść książki
Przejdź do opcji czytnikaPrzejdź do nawigacjiPrzejdź do informacjiPrzejdź do stopki
ChallengesforModellingCAP2014–2020withinCGEModelFramework
---
---
---
---
---
---
--
combinationsofgreeningrequirementsfulfilledbyamixofPillar1requirements
andPillar2measures.
OnewaytoanalysethegreeningwiththeuseofCGEmodelsisbylinkingthe
modeltosomeothertypeoffarmmodel.LinkingCGEwiththepartialequilibrium
modelhasalreadysometradition,andhassofarbeencarriedoutinthreeways
(seeTörmäetal.2010).First,bysequentialimplementationofscenarios,where
onemodel’soutcomeservesasinputforthesubsequentmodelruns(donein
Scenar2020,SENSOR).Second,bythesystematic,iterativecalibrationofstructural
modelparametersasinSEAMLESSproject(Janssonetal.2009)andCAPRI-RD
project(Britz2012).Theadvantageofthisapproachisthatitensurestheharmonized
simulationbehaviourofbothmodelsformatchingendogenousvariables.Third,
bythedirectcombinationofpartialequilibriummodelandeconomywidedata
fromEuroStattogenerateadatabasecompatiblewithGTAP
,butwithahigher
degreeofdetailfortheagriculturalsectorasdonebytheEuropeanCommission’s
InstituteforProspectiveTechnologicalStudies(AgroSAM,Muelleretal.2009).
Themainadvantageofthisapproachistheeasyimplementationofpolicyshocks
atfarmlevel.Otherwise,itisverydifficulttoimplemente.g.theshocksconcerning
greeninginCGEmodelbecausegreeningmeansurequirements”(notpayments)
andisimplementedatthefarmlevel(nottotalcultivatedhectaresortotalsector).
CGEmodelsneedtohaveaverydetailedlandfunctionrepresentationwithall
involvedtypesoflandanddisaggregateddataatleastatNUTS3level(tofollow
rural-urbantypologyofEUROSTATandOECD)aswellasarepresentationof
variousagriculturalcropactivities.Itisfeasiblebasedonareachagriculturaland
regionaldatabasease.g.databaseoftheCAPRImodel.
3.ChallengesofmodellingRDPsfor2014-2020
Ruraldevelopmentpolicyhaschangedinmanyaspectspost2013,which
causeessomechallengesforscientificmodellersaswell.First,theformer4axes
(axis1:competitiveness,axis2:environment,axis3:ruraleconomyandquality
oflife,axis4:LEADER)havebeenreplacedby6prioritiesofruraldevelopment2
whichmakesclassificationofmeasuresmorecomplexthanpreviouslybecause
2
Thenewprioritiesare:(1)fosteringknowledgetransferandinnovationinagriculture,forestry,
andruralareas;(2)enhancingfarmviabilityandcompetitivenessofalltypesofagricultureinallregions
andpromotinginnovativefarmtechnologiesandsustainablemanagementofforests;(3)promotingfood
chainorganisation,includingprocessingandmarketingofagriculturalproducts,animalwelfareandrisk
managementinagriculture;(4)restoring,preservingandenhancingecosystemsdependentonrelatedto
agricultureandforestry;(5)promotingresourceefficiencyandsupportingtheshifttowardsalowcarbon
andclimateresilienteconomyinagriculture,foodandforestrysectors;(6)promotingsocialinclusion,
povertyreductionandeconomicdevelopmentinruralareas(EC2013b).
WieśiRolnictwo4(173)/2016
15
