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NewProtectionistTendenciesandInclinationtoBilateralismandRegionalism...
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turn,carryatypeofinteriathatcontinuestoinfluencepolicyoutcomeslong
afterchangesininternationalandinternalstructurewouldpredictpolicychange
(Goldstein,1989;Goldstein,1995).Incontrasttotheseexplanationsgovernment
interestsintheeconomyandinmaintainingstabilityalsoplayalargerolein
tradepolicy(Kennedy,2007).
Atoneend,amultilateralforumlikeWorldTradeOrganisation(WTO)
withnearuniversalmembershipoffersmaximizationofgainsfromtradeand
reducedtransactioncosts.However,asinglestatecannotexpecttohavemuch
controlovertradepartnersorliberalizationagendasatthemultilaterallevel.
Attheotherend,abilateralFTAoftenyieldsverysmallgainsfromtradeand
usuallyincreasestransactioncostsbyproducingidiosyncraticsetsofrules.But
atthesametime,alargestate,canacquireahighlevelofcontrolinterms
ofpartners,issuesandagendaselection,andsectoralexclusionsorinclusions
basedondomesticpoliticalneeds(Pekkanen,Solis,andKatada,2007).One
cancontendthatindustrializedofaggregateeconomicgainsintheinterestof
nationalwelfare(largestinmultilateralforums)orseekingcontroloverrules
inlinewithpoliticalinterests(greatestinbilateralforums).
Itisimportantunderlinethattheliberalizingrulesonagriculture,andotherless
competitivesectors,arenolongeranacceptablepoliticalpricefortheeconomic
gainsbundledacrosssectors.Yet,thissortofvaguestatementfostersuncertainty
fordomesticactorsathomeinuncompetitivesectorslikeagricultureandin
severalcaseslikeforexampleinEuropeanUnionandJapantradeofficialsneed
toshowthattheyhavemoreconcretecontrolforpoliticalreasons-anelement
morecredibleinabilateralsettingthanamultilateralone(Pekkanen,Solis,and
Katada,2007).Thissituationmayalsoindicatethebackfromglobalisationto
themercantilisttendenciesintheforeigntradepolicy.
8.ResultsandFindings
Whatindicatestheimportanceandinnovativenessoftheresearchisthe
presentationofthenewprotectionisttendenciesandinclinationtobilateralism
andregionalisminthecontemporaryforeigntradepolicy.Firstofallitmust
underlinethatinthenewtheoreticaltermsinthedemandfortradepolicy
veryimportantisfactorspecificity.Somefactorsarestuckintheirpresent
uses;therefore,factorreturnsarenotequalizedthroughoutaregion’seconomy,
butareindustryspecific.Tradepolicycoalitionsshouldformalongthelines
ofexportingversusimport-competingindustries.Itmustbeemphasisthaton
atheoreticallevel,understandingthechoiceoftradepoliciesbetweenliberalism
andprotectionismisveryimportant.
