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Teintroduction
Inthepastseveralyearssocioeconomicdevelopmenthasenteredabreakthrough
phase,ifwedonotfeelcomfortablewiththisphrasethenletususethefollowing
sportsormilitaryterminology;in‘acloseorder’
.Tis‘closeorder’isoccurringat
afewlevelsthataresimultaneouslyjoinedandseparatedanditisobviousthatsome-
thingisover,butthereisalackofsufcientsignstodescribewhatnewphenomena
arelikelytooccur.
Sothen,whataretheselevelsof‘thecloseorder’?
Firstly,thedominationoftheUnitedStatesasthewinnerofonecoldwarand
many‘hot’oneshasceasedinthesubjectsystem.Asystemofthreeequivalentre-
gionshasstartedtoemerge:USA,EUandChina,butwedonotyetknow,whether
ornot,intheperspectiveoftwoorthreedecades,atrilateralorsomeothersystem
willbedeveloped.
Secondlythe2007/2008crisisendedthedominationoftheneoliberaldoctrine
ineconomictheoryandpractice.Todate,thisgaphasnotbeenfilledwithanyother
theoryandthe‘revivaloftheKeyneseconomy’isratheroutofthequestion.Tecur-
rentrangeofeconomicpracticeusesmanyinstruments(inasomewhathelter-skelter
fashion)withoutbeingsupportedeitherbytheoryorbyeconomicpragmatism.It
maybeconcludedthattheeconomiccrisisisundercontrolinthesensethattheeco-
nomyisnotslowingdown,ratherithasreachedthestageofstabilityandstagnant
growth.However,itcannotbesaid,asitwasafertheGreatDepression,thatweare
inpossessionofanefectivegrowthinstrumentlikeRoosevelt’sNewDeal.
Tirdly,theUSA,inordertomaintainitsfadingdomination,hasfallenintothe
policyofusingprotectionismandtradewarswhicharecrushingthebasisofthe
maineconomicgrowthfactor,whichwasandstillisglobalization.Itisreasonable
toassumethat,fromtheendofWWIIuntilthebeginningofthe21stcentury,its
technological,organizational,tradingandfinancialsupremacyproducedasufcient
economicsurplustofinancethesystembuiltandbasedonitsdomination.However,
thisisnolongerthecase.Anewsuchpowerthatisbothwillingandabletofinance
everythinginthefuturehasnotyetemerged.
Fourthly,theefectsofclimatechangearesopowerfulandwide-rangingthatthey
cannotbenegatedanylonger,thisremainsthecaseregardlessofthereader’sviews,
whethertheyareasupporteroropponentofthetheoryofthehumanimpactoncli-
matechange.Ourcurrentunderstandingofscienceofersoneremedy:thereduction
ofcarbondioxideandothergreenhousegasemissionsandthismeansachangein
thecurrentdevelopmentparadigmandarequirementtodevelopanewone.Inthis
aspectofsocioeconomicdevelopment,boththepoliticiansandthesocietiestheygo-
vernarein‘closeorder.
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