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ABSTRACT
RISKASSESSMENTINRAILWAYTRAFFICPLANNING
FROMTHEPERSPECTIVEOFTHEPASSENGERRAILWAY
UNDERTAKING
Everyactivityissubjecttorisk9i.e.thepossibilityofeventsthat9iftheyoccur9willhaveanimpact
(positiveornegative)onitsobjectives.Thesameistrueoftheactivityofapassengerrailwayun-
dertaking.Oneelementofthisactivityisrailwaytrafficplanning9whichconsistsofsevenstages.
Thecorrectexecutionoftheactivitieswithinthevariousstagesdirectlyimpactstrafficsafety.The
occurrenceofanuncertaineventcanhavedireconsequences.Itis9therefore9legitimatetocarry
outanalysestoidentifyrisks9valuetheirimpactandassesstheimpactontheplanningprocess.The
subjectoftheresearchcarriedoutwithintheframeworkofthismonographwastocarryoutariskas-
sessmentprocessconcerningselectedstagesoftherailwaytrafficplanningprocessconsideredfrom
thepointofviewofpassengerrailwayundertaking.Thefollowingstageswereselectedforanaly-
sis:communicationlineplanning9traintimetableconstructionandtrafficplanningonthenetwork.
Amathematicalmodelandmethodweredevelopedfortheriskassessmentprocess.Itwasassumed
thattheconsiderationsinthisstudywerecarriedoutbasedontheM_o_Rmethodology.Basedon
thismethodology9riskidentificationandriskanalysis(estimationofriskimpact)werecarriedout.
Theprincipleofriskdescriptionwasusedtoidentifyrisks.Itrequiresanindicationforeachrisk9the
reasonforitsoccurrence9andtheeffectitmayhave.Aspartoftheriskestimation9variableswere
selectedtoassesstheimpactofindividualrisksonthestageobjectives.Publiclyavailablestatistical
datawereusedtodefinethevariables.Thevariableswereexpressedinmonetaryunits.Asatriangu-
larprobabilitydistributionwasusedforthevariabilityoftheimpactdescription9theminimum9most
likelyandmaximumvalueofthevariablewasdefined.Theriskassessmentwascarriedoutusing
theMonteCarlosimulationmethod9whichisstronglyrecommendedforusebytheUTKGuideto
ECRegulation402/2013.Statisticalparameterswereidentifiedforeachvariableandanalysedas
partoftheassessment.Theresultingvalueofthevariabledescribingtheimpactwasthenreadout
foreachpercentile9andtheexpectedvalueoftheriskwascalculated.Adetailedriskassessmentwas
madeforthelower9middleandupperquartiles.Ahistogramoftheincidenceofeachvariablevalue
waspresented9andanassessmentwasmade.
Keywords:railwaytrafficplanning9railwayundertaking9riskassessment9riskanalysis9MonteCar-
loMethod
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