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Kazakhstan,repelledbyRussia’spolicymethods,willprefer
tomoveawayfromthatcountry,ratherthanmoving
incloser,andthisistosaynothingoftheirobvious
unwillingnesstounderwritethebillfortheCrimea
annexation.
Inanattempttoconstrainthebigpowers’omnipotence,
theinternationalcommunityseekstohavethembound
byanetworkofinternationallawcommitments.Andthis
civilisationalachievementwillnotbegivenupjustbecause
theKremlinhasdecidedthatCrimeawillnowbeapart
ofRussia.WhatanoverwhelmingmajorityofUNMember
Statescareforisnotaperipheralpeninsulaoflittle
importance,butarules-basedsystemasthebloodstream
ofcontemporaryinternationalrelations.Itisthereforewell
worthsearchingforwaysoutoftheentrapment.
Letitbeassumedthatthesearchforasolution
totheproblembeginsin2030.Projectingsodistantafuture
usuallybringslittlepracticalgain,butitwillprovequite
convenientinthisparticularcase.Thisisbecausewecan
restassuredthat,in15years’time,thepolicy-makers
responsiblefortheCrimeaproblemandforinternational-law
trollingwillhavenoinfluenceonhowtheproblemwill
besolved.Theegresspathshouldhelpstrengthenpeace
inEuropeandrebuildRussia’scredibilityasastate
contributingtoapeacefuldevelopmentframeworkfor
thewholecontinent.Apoliticalandlegalmechanismwill
thusbeneeded,throughwhichRussiacouldrecommit
totheprincipleslaiddownintheUNCharterandtheCharter
ofParis,andespeciallytherenunciationofannexationand
thethreatoruseofforceagainstneighbouringcountries.
Therearethreewaysbywhichthisgoalmight
beapproachedmorefully:
1)ifabilateralRusso-Ukrainiantreatytoregulatethefuture
ofthePeninsulaisconcluded,andifthisinvolves
asecessiontoRussiainexchangeforreparationsfor
Ukraine;
2)ifRussiaabandonsattemptstoannexthePeninsula,
concludingwithUkraineanagreementonjointgovernance
inatransitionalperiod,andonthemannerinwhich
Crimea’sfinalstatuswillbedetermined,withaccount
takenofthefreelyexpressedwillofitsinhabitants;